Monthly Archives: February 2026
BNY’s Geoff Yu says Bullock warned the RBA may hike rates if inflation persists amid productivity concerns
Written on February 12, 2026 at 8:09 pm, by davin
Australia’s RBA warns more rate hikes may come as inflation stays above target and expectations rise. With cash rates at 3.85%, bond yields and the Australian dollar could climb. – vtmarketsmy.com
In January, the UK’s NIESR three-month GDP estimate fell sharply from 4.296% to 0.3%
Written on February 12, 2026 at 7:09 pm, by davin
UK growth just plunged: NIESR’s three‑month GDP estimate sank to 0.3% in January from 4.296%. Markets now expect BoE rate cuts, weaker pound, FTSE 250 risk, gilts upside. – vtmarketsmy.com
RBC’s Claire Fan expects the Fed to keep rates near neutral, with slightly lower unemployment ahead and an unchanged 2026 average
Written on February 12, 2026 at 7:09 pm, by davin
RBC sees steady US outlook: productivity boosts 2025 growth, unemployment near 4.5% in 2026. Data delays muddy inflation; Fed holds 3.5–3.75%. Trade calm, hedge shocks: sell rate vol, buy VIX. – vtmarketsmy.com
In the US, new unemployment benefit applications fell to 227,000 in the week ending 7 February
Written on February 12, 2026 at 7:09 pm, by davin
Jobless claims dipped to 227K, but rising four-week averages and continuing claims hint labor weakening. Markets shrugged, easing Fed tightening odds. With low volatility, investors may hedge stocks and dollar downside. – vtmarketsmy.com
Rabobank’s Jane Foley says reassessing views on Takaichi eases dovish pressure on the BOJ, helping the yen move toward 145
Written on February 12, 2026 at 7:09 pm, by davin
USD/JPY surged on the “Takaichi trade,” but momentum is fading as the BoJ turns hawkish. With inflation, wage gains, and narrowing yield gaps, analysts expect yen recovery toward 145. – vtmarketsmy.com
US continuing jobless claims rose above forecasts to 1.862M vs 1.85M expected on January 30
Written on February 12, 2026 at 6:09 pm, by davin
Jobless claims hit 1.862M, above the 1.85M forecast—hinting at a softening labor market. Traders now see May rate-cut odds rising, plus higher volatility: hedge equities, consider bonds and VIX calls. – vtmarketsmy.com
Germany’s unadjusted current account rose to €16.1B in December, up from €15.1B previously
Written on February 12, 2026 at 6:09 pm, by davin
Germany’s current account surplus rose to €16.1bn in December, signaling export resilience. That could support a stronger euro, boost the DAX, and keep ECB rates higher versus US/UK. – vtmarketsmy.com
America’s four-week average for initial jobless claims rose to 219.5K, up from the prior 212.25K reading
Written on February 12, 2026 at 6:09 pm, by davin
Jobless claims’ four-week average jumped to 219.5K, hinting the US labor market is cooling. That boosts June Fed-cut odds, may raise volatility, and could weaken the dollar—prompting options trades. – vtmarketsmy.com
US initial jobless claims rose to 227K, above the 222K forecast, data shows
Written on February 12, 2026 at 6:08 pm, by davin
Jobless claims hit 227,000—5,000 above forecasts—sparking a trend. The four-week average is 238,000, fueling June rate-cut bets, long SOFR futures, and VIX call hedges. – vtmarketsmy.com
Despite higher 2026 inflation forecast ranges, Turkey’s central bank keeps an easing bias and remains upbeat about the inflation outlook
Written on February 12, 2026 at 5:09 pm, by davin
Turkey’s central bank clings to optimistic inflation targets while hinting at rate cuts despite 71% inflation. That widening credibility gap could weaken the lira—making USD/TRY calls, futures, and volatility bets attractive. – vtmarketsmy.com
