Monthly Archives: February 2026
Bostic said that if inflation reverses, it could trigger rate rises, with neutral rates slightly below today’s policy setting
Written on February 20, 2026 at 11:10 pm, by davin
Fed’s Bostic warns cuts may be limited: neutral sits just 0.25–0.50% below 4.75%. With hot inflation and fiscal stimulus, hikes remain possible—challenging markets, favoring higher rates, hedges, and dollar longs. – vtmarketsmy.com
Pedersen at Nordea says Denmark’s 2025 GDP rose 2.9%, but pharma volatility obscured underlying quarterly trends
Written on February 20, 2026 at 10:11 pm, by davin
Denmark’s 2025 GDP jumped 2.9%, but the real story is pharma distortion: excluding it, growth was 1.7% and Q4 slowed. Rising inflation threatens consumers, boosting market volatility. – vtmarketsmy.com
Canadian dollar holds steady as the USD eases after the US Supreme Court overturns Trump’s global tariffs
Written on February 20, 2026 at 10:11 pm, by davin
USD/CAD slipped toward 1.3690 after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, boosting uncertainty. Weak US growth and mixed inflation cloud the outlook, while Canada’s steady data hints at volatility and downside. – vtmarketsmy.com
Gold holds above $5,000 as US-Iran tensions and strong PCE data drive safe-haven buying worldwide
Written on February 20, 2026 at 10:10 pm, by davin
Gold rebounded near $5,030 as US-Iran tensions and sticky inflation boosted safe-haven demand. Weak GDP adds support. Traders target a 10–15 day catalyst with short-dated calls, and spreads. – vtmarketsmy.com
US new home sales rose month on month to 0.758M in November, up from 0.737M previously
Written on February 20, 2026 at 10:10 pm, by davin
US new home sales climbed to 758,000 in November, hinting at a stronger economy. Solid housing, hot CPI, and fading rate-cut odds bolster housing plays, favor Fed-on-hold and volatility options. – vtmarketsmy.com
U.S. new home sales beat forecasts, rising to 0.745M month on month versus the expected 0.73M
Written on February 20, 2026 at 9:11 pm, by davin
US new home sales beat forecasts at 745,000, signaling resilient demand. With core CPI sticky at 3.7%, March rate-cut odds slid below 30%, sparking higher-for-longer trades and volatility hedges. – vtmarketsmy.com
In February, the US Michigan consumer expectations index met forecasts, coming in at 56.6.
Written on February 20, 2026 at 9:11 pm, by davin
Consumer expectations hit 56.6 in February, exactly as forecast—no market shock. But the gloomy reading, weak retail sales, and sticky inflation hint Fed rate cuts, range trading, and retail downside risk. – vtmarketsmy.com
In February, University of Michigan one-year U.S. consumer inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, below the 3.5% forecast
Written on February 20, 2026 at 9:10 pm, by davin
Michigan’s February 1-year inflation expectation dipped to 3.4% vs 3.5%, extending disinflation. Markets now boost July rate-cut odds, favoring bonds, growth stocks, and a weaker dollar. – vtmarketsmy.com
In February, the University of Michigan’s five-year consumer inflation expectation was 3.3%, slightly below the 3.4% forecast.
Written on February 20, 2026 at 9:10 pm, by davin
Michigan’s 5-year inflation expectation slipped to 3.3% vs 3.4%, easing inflation fears. Markets now bet on Fed cuts by July, lifting stocks, lowering VIX, and pressuring the dollar. – vtmarketsmy.com
The US Michigan consumer sentiment index fell short of forecasts in February, coming in at 56.6 versus 57.3 expected
Written on February 20, 2026 at 8:11 pm, by davin
Consumer sentiment fell to 56.6, missing forecasts—an early red flag. Expect weaker spending, more volatility, and potentially a cautious Fed. Consider VIX calls, Treasury futures, and protective index puts. – vtmarketsmy.com
