Monthly Archives: February 2026
Australia’s S&P Global Services PMI eased from 56.3 to 52.2, signalling slower services expansion in February
Written on February 20, 2026 at 3:11 am, by davin
Australia’s Services PMI slipped to 52.2, signaling slower growth. Cooling momentum may rule out RBA hikes, boost rate-cut bets, pressure the Aussie dollar, and raise volatility—time to hedge. – vtmarketsmy.com
New Zealand’s exports fell to $6.21B from $7.65B the previous month
Written on February 20, 2026 at 3:10 am, by davin
New Zealand exports plunged 18.8% to $6.21B in January, flashing weaker demand. Expect NZD/USD pressure: consider short exposure via puts, RBNZ dovish-rate bets, or hedging with long AUD/NZD. – vtmarketsmy.com
New Zealand’s imports fell to $6.73B from $7.6B, reflecting a month-on-month decline
Written on February 20, 2026 at 3:10 am, by davin
New Zealand imports fell sharply to $6.73b in January, down $0.87b. This hints cooling demand, earlier RBNZ rate cuts, and possible NZD and stock market declines—prompting traders to hedge. – vtmarketsmy.com
Ahead of the PCE, GDP and PMI releases, the US dollar stayed firm as jobless claims fell to 206K
Written on February 20, 2026 at 2:11 am, by davin
Jobless claims dropped to 206K, lifting the dollar near four-week highs as traders eye Core PCE, GDP, and PMIs. FX diverged on central-bank outlooks; gold stayed supported by record buying. – vtmarketsmy.com
Commerzbank analysts say USD/INR remains range-bound as India’s trade deficit widens due to soaring gold imports
Written on February 20, 2026 at 2:11 am, by davin
India’s trade deficit hit $34.7bn as gold imports surged, once keeping USD/INR near 90–91. Now it’s ~92.5: Fed rates, FPI outflows, and higher volatility fuel rupee weakness. – vtmarketsmy.com
Argentina’s monthly trade balance reached $1,987M in January, exceeding the $900M forecast
Written on February 20, 2026 at 2:10 am, by davin
Argentina’s trade surplus shocked at $1.99bn vs $0.9bn, easing peso pressure. With inflation falling, stabilization strengthens. Consider peso-friendly trades: sell USD/ARS OTM calls; buy ARGT call spreads. – vtmarketsmy.com
BNY’s EMEA macro strategist Geoff Yu says higher import prices are limiting bullishness, while industrial metals lack support for a rebound
Written on February 20, 2026 at 2:10 am, by davin
Industrial metals can’t reclaim early highs as weak demand and deflation persist, especially in China. Rising inventories, Indonesia’s nickel quota cut, and falling import prices signal more downside—dragging metals-linked currencies too. – vtmarketsmy.com
UOB economists expect the Bank of Thailand to cut its one-day repo rate by 25 bps to 1.00%, with the terminal rate anticipated
Written on February 20, 2026 at 1:11 am, by davin
Thailand’s central bank may cut rates 25 bps to 1.00% on Feb 25, 2026—seen as the cycle’s floor. Expect weaker baht; traders may use swaps or USD/THB calls. – vtmarketsmy.com
USD/CHF hit an eight-session high after US jobless claims fell to 206K, beating expectations
Written on February 20, 2026 at 1:11 am, by davin
USD/CHF jumps as US jobless claims drop, boosting Fed-hold expectations. Swiss output contracts, widening policy gap. Friday’s core PCE could spark a breakout above 0.7834—or send prices back under 0.7700. – vtmarketsmy.com
Bhargava says BSP cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% but signalled caution amid a weaker-than-expected growth outlook
Written on February 20, 2026 at 1:10 am, by davin
BSP cut rates to 4.25%, but the bigger story is its neutral pivot, hinting at more cuts. Softer growth, weak spending, and uncertainty may weaken the peso and shift trading strategies. – vtmarketsmy.com
