Monthly Archives: February 2026
In February, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey rose to 16.3, beating forecasts of 8.5
Written on February 19, 2026 at 5:10 pm, by davin
Surprise Philly Fed surge to 16.3 (vs 8.5) signals stronger factories, cooling rate-cut bets. Expect firmer Treasury yields, stronger dollar, higher equity volatility; favor industrials/materials, use protective options. – vtmarketsmy.com
US initial jobless claims fell to 206K, beating forecasts of 225K in the mid-February release
Written on February 19, 2026 at 5:10 pm, by davin
Jobless claims hit 206K, far below 225K forecasts, signaling a tight labor market. With inflation sticky, rate cuts may slip to Q3. Traders eye bond puts and VIX options. – vtmarketsmy.com
December’s US trade balance missed forecasts, with a $70.3B deficit versus $55.5B expected
Written on February 19, 2026 at 4:11 pm, by davin
Trade deficit shock: -$70.3B vs -$55.5B expected. Strong US spending meets weak global demand, pressuring the dollar, stirring Fed rate volatility, and reshaping winners: domestic firms up, exporters down. – vtmarketsmy.com
Danske Bank says the BoE held rates, but weaker UK data points to a more dovish stance ahead
Written on February 19, 2026 at 4:11 pm, by davin
BoE held rates at 3.75% amid dissent, but weak UK jobs and growth signal more cuts. Danske sees April and November moves. Traders eye SONIA futures and GBP puts as volatility risk rises. – vtmarketsmy.com
Russia’s central bank reserves rose to $806.1 billion from $797.5 billion
Written on February 19, 2026 at 4:11 pm, by davin
Russia’s reserves jumped $8.6B to $806.1B—sanctions haven’t broken its buffer. Strong oil exports support ruble stability, aid Russian stocks, and could raise volatility risk for European markets. – vtmarketsmy.com
TD Securities’ strategy team expects UK retail sales to cool in January and PMIs to ease somewhat
Written on February 19, 2026 at 4:10 pm, by davin
UK momentum is cooling: TD Securities sees January retail sales at 0.1% and PMIs easing but above 50. Sticky 2.8% inflation limits BoE cuts, favoring range-bound FX and volatility-selling strategies. – vtmarketsmy.com
USD/CHF rebounds near 0.7750 on hawkish Fed messaging as the Swiss franc slips despite data
Written on February 19, 2026 at 3:11 pm, by davin
USD/CHF rebounded as a stronger dollar and cautious Fed minutes outweighed Switzerland’s bigger trade surplus and weaker output. With US inflation higher and SNB easing, traders favor USD longs, using options. – vtmarketsmy.com
Bob Savage says rising oil prices now track the dollar less, amid net selling flows
Written on February 19, 2026 at 3:11 pm, by davin
Oil is surging, but the dollar isn’t: BNY says the oil–USD link is breaking. DXY correlation sank to 0.15, as geopolitics lifts crude without boosting dollar flows. – vtmarketsmy.com
Spain’s three-year bond auction yield falls to 2.273% from 2.341%
Written on February 19, 2026 at 3:10 pm, by davin
Spain’s 3-year bond yield fell to 2.273%, signaling stronger demand and lower perceived risk. That boosts bets on ECB rate cuts, favors bond strategies, and could weaken the euro versus the dollar. – vtmarketsmy.com
Eurozone construction output (working-day adjusted) fell to -0.9% year on year, from -0.8%
Written on February 19, 2026 at 3:10 pm, by davin
Eurozone construction fell 0.9% in December, worsening slightly. With PMI weak and inflation cooling, bets grow on ECB cuts—boosting Bunds, pressuring equities and construction stocks, and turning the euro bearish. – vtmarketsmy.com
