Monthly Archives: February 2026
Ahead of key US data, traders keep the Dollar Index near 97.29 and hold gains above 97.00
Written on February 18, 2026 at 7:11 pm, by davin
Dollar Index clings to 97.29—but is this a trap? Data is mixed, Fed cuts are priced for June, and technical resistance looms. Break 96.50 risks 95.56 retest. – vtmarketsmy.com
Rabobank says the EU’s capital markets plans and Sweden reconsidering EMU membership could structurally strengthen the euro
Written on February 18, 2026 at 7:10 pm, by davin
EU plans a March capital-markets push and Savings & Investment Union to redirect €10tn idle savings. If progress lags by June, a nine-state rollout starts. Sweden’s EMU debate could jolt EUR/SEK volatility. – vtmarketsmy.com
US housing starts rose to 1.322 million month on month, up from 1.246 million the previous month.
Written on February 18, 2026 at 6:11 pm, by davin
US housing starts jumped to 1.322M in November, signaling economic resilience. Hotter CPI (3.1%) slashed rate-cut odds, fueling “higher for longer,” more volatility, and tactical trades in bonds, builders, and VIX. – vtmarketsmy.com
In November, US building permits fell month on month to 1.388M, down from 1.412M previously
Written on February 18, 2026 at 6:11 pm, by davin
US building permits slipped in November, then sank again in January—an early housing slowdown signal. Traders eye bearish homebuilders, softer lumber/copper demand, and possible Fed rate cuts boosting Treasuries. – vtmarketsmy.com
In November, US housing starts rose 6.2%, rebounding from -4.6% previously
Written on February 18, 2026 at 6:10 pm, by davin
Housing starts surged from -4.6% to +6.2% in November, easing recession fears. Strong jobs and sticky inflation weaken March cut odds, favoring higher yields, cautious homebuilders, range-bound lumber, stronger dollar. – vtmarketsmy.com
US building permits exceeded forecasts in December, reaching 1.448 million vs 1.4 million expected in month-on-month data
Written on February 18, 2026 at 6:10 pm, by davin
Building permits jumped to 1.448M in December, beating forecasts by 48K—signaling economic strength. This may delay Fed rate cuts, lift yields, boost housing-linked stocks, and increase volatility risk. – vtmarketsmy.com
US durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, beating forecasts of a 2% decline
Written on February 18, 2026 at 5:11 pm, by davin
US durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, beating forecasts. Alongside strong job gains and sticky inflation, it signals resilience, delays Fed cuts, supports bullish ETF options, and lower volatility. – vtmarketsmy.com
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes says crowded dollar shorts are faltering as DXY dips, but modest rebounds could reverse the trend
Written on February 18, 2026 at 5:11 pm, by davin
Crowded bets against the dollar are peaking: euro longs hit a 2020 high and DXY needs just 1% to reclaim key averages. With resilient US data, options may beat risky shorts. – vtmarketsmy.com
Japan’s exports grew at their fastest pace since 2022, while the yen’s reaction was muted as USD/JPY edged lower
Written on February 18, 2026 at 5:11 pm, by davin
Japan exports surged 16.8% in January, led by Asia, but the yen barely budged. High US-Japan rate gaps and $36bn US investments cap gains; insurer rule tweaks may ease pressure. – vtmarketsmy.com
Despite cooler UK inflation, EUR/GBP falls as the euro weakens amid reports Lagarde may leave the ECB early
Written on February 18, 2026 at 5:11 pm, by davin
EUR/GBP slipped as rumors about ECB chief Lagarde leaving sparked euro uncertainty. UK inflation cooled, boosting BoE cut bets. Watch PMIs/retail sales; some see dips near 0.8700 as buy. – vtmarketsmy.com
