Monthly Archives: February 2026
Rabobank’s Michael Every says the RBA hiked 25 bps on stronger forecasts, as the IMF urges scrapping the 5% deposit scheme that’s inflating housing
Written on February 18, 2026 at 4:09 am, by davin
Australia faces a policy clash: the RBA signals more rate hikes as forecasts strengthen, while a 5% deposit homebuyer scheme fuels prices. Inflation stays high, markets reprice, and rates volatility rises. – vtmarketsmy.com
EUR/USD trades near 1.1845 as hawkish Fed sentiment and US-Iran tensions briefly boost the dollar
Written on February 18, 2026 at 4:09 am, by davin
EUR/USD dips as US-Iran tensions boost the dollar and strong US data cuts Fed-cut bets. Softer Eurozone indicators widen divergence. Watch FOMC minutes; bearish options target below 1.1800. – vtmarketsmy.com
New Zealand producer prices rose 0.1% in the fourth quarter, well below the 0.7% forecast
Written on February 18, 2026 at 4:08 am, by davin
New Zealand PPI barely rose, shocking forecasts and signaling fast-fading inflation. RBNZ hikes may be biting, shifting focus to earlier rate cuts, weaker NZD, and potential opportunities in puts and futures. – vtmarketsmy.com
In New Zealand, quarterly producer input prices fell 0.5%, missing forecasts for a 0.5% rise
Written on February 18, 2026 at 3:09 am, by davin
Surprise NZ data: PPI inputs fell 0.5% in Q4 vs a 0.5% rise expected, flashing deflation. That boosts rate-cut odds, pressures NZD, and may spark volatility ahead of RBNZ. – vtmarketsmy.com
TD Securities forecasts 2.3% US GDP growth in Q4 2025 as spending eases, outlays fall and exports weigh
Written on February 18, 2026 at 3:09 am, by davin
US growth is cooling: TD Securities sees Q4 2025 GDP at 2.3% as consumers, government spending, and exports weaken, while AI investment holds up. Volatility seems underpriced. – vtmarketsmy.com
Commerzbank says Takaichi’s strong mandate allows proactive fiscal measures, including a temporary VAT cut on food
Written on February 18, 2026 at 3:09 am, by davin
Japan’s election shock boosts fiscal stimulus: Takaichi’s LDP landslide enables big budget moves, including a ¥5T food VAT cut, spiking USD/JPY volatility, likely weakening yen short-term—yet long-term fears may be overdone. – vtmarketsmy.com
Despite strong ADP employment data, the US dollar gives up earlier gains as private hiring rises to 10.3K
Written on February 18, 2026 at 3:09 am, by davin
Jobs and inflation data nudged FX markets: US hiring improved, Canada CPI cooled, keeping DXY firm. Pound and yen weakened, gold stayed capped. Now DXY near 104.5 dominates. – vtmarketsmy.com
Gold drops more than 3% as improving US-Iran negotiations boost the dollar, pushing XAU/USD to $4,869
Written on February 18, 2026 at 2:09 am, by davin
Gold plunged 3% as a stronger dollar, higher yields, and progress in US–Iran talks hit safe-haven demand. Fed cut bets fell, volatility jumped, and traders eye $4,800 support. – vtmarketsmy.com
BNY’s John Velis expects three Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, nearly one more than markets are pricing in
Written on February 18, 2026 at 2:09 am, by davin
Think the Fed will cut less? BNY’s Velis expects three cuts by 2026, citing narrow healthcare-driven job gains and easing inflation—creating a trade setup via SOFR, swaps, and long vol. – vtmarketsmy.com
Barr says US data suggests jobs are stabilising, but warns AI may cause short-term labour market disruptions
Written on February 18, 2026 at 2:09 am, by davin
Fed’s Barr says jobs look stable but shock-prone, inflation may cool yet stay above 2%. Rates likely on hold; AI won’t trigger cuts. Traders brace for “higher-for-longer” and calm volatility. – vtmarketsmy.com
