South Korea’s Green Book from the Ministry of Economy and Finance shows that the economy is facing “increasing” downward pressure. This is mainly due to a drop in exports and lower domestic spending amid ongoing trade uncertainties. For five months in a row, the Ministry has said that recovering domestic demand is slow, and the job market is struggling, especially in vulnerable sectors. Additionally, tougher external conditions from U.S. tariff policies have made the export slowdown worse. The latest issue of South Korea’s Green Book paints a clear picture. The economy is feeling more downward pressure than it has in recent months. Exports are struggling, affected not just by seasonal changes but also by international policy issues. Domestically, spending is decreasing—households are buying less, and businesses are investing less confidently. This is the fifth consecutive update pointing to weak or declining demand, indicating a trend rather than a temporary issue. When we see this consistency in official statements, especially from a finance ministry with access to a lot of data, we can’t ignore it. Adding to this are the growing job pressures in fragile areas of the labor market, revealing systemic stress. These aren’t just minor changes; they reflect deeper issues in the real economy. American tariff strategies have worsened the situation for South Korean exporters. The challenges are not limited to a few sectors; they affect a broader range. Manufacturing output for international buyers is decreasing, impacting both sales volume and pricing. If global demand drops and trade barriers rise, profit margins shrink. Lower margins lead to less confidence in hedging. People involved in options or futures contracts should take notice—not just due to volatility, but because the causes of that volatility are clearer and harder to manage. There are obvious pressures from both domestic and international fronts, which reduce a historical cushion. This isn’t a reason to act hastily, but it’s a time to rethink risk profiles. When both consumption and exports signal contraction at the same time, it may require adjusting expectations across multiple areas. What worries us is that this situation isn’t just a one-time issue. The consistent tone over five months suggests we should adjust expectations for a quick recovery. Recovery timelines may extend, and contracts based on the assumption of a cyclical upswing might need reevaluation. While the ministry doesn’t give specific predictions, we should pay close attention to their messaging. The focus on “increasing” pressure is significant—it suggests a growing concern, not just a slowing decline. This points to a potentially sharper downturn than some models anticipated. In planning future strategies, it’s wiser to be cautious with short-term positions. With slow domestic activity and increasing global challenges, flexibility in exposure is more important than the amount of exposure. Being early could be less costly than being poorly positioned. We should also keep an eye on employment concerns—especially in vulnerable sectors—not just for labor data but for their effects on consumption. If job security falters, even in small sectors, it can negatively affect overall sentiment and spending. Consumption relies not just on disposable income but also on confidence. Without it, pricing and sales volumes suffer. As the data clarifies the direction, we aim to distinguish between noise and meaningful trends. The tone has changed. Corrections may not be quick, and pressures may take time to ease.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now