The S&P 500 Futures have important levels to watch. Major resistance is at 6,000, and there’s secondary support at 5,917. The Volume Profile’s point of control (POC) is around 5,904, which is essential for keeping bullish momentum alive. Even with a recent pullback, the uptrend holds strong because the price stays above the VWAP mid-line. If it falls below 5,969, it may indicate profit-taking, leading to a test of the POC/VWAP on Monday.

Scenarios for Bullish and Bearish Trends

For a bullish scenario, if the price reclaims 5,960, it could target 6,000. A bounce from 5,904 might aim for 5,932. In bearish scenarios, a drop from the 5,969–5,977 zone could take it to 5,904. A break below 5,904 might test lower levels, like 5,870. Risk management recommends keeping trade risks below 1% and using volume as entry confirmation. It’s wise to consider geopolitical influences, as they affect market openings. Remember, prices can change, and trading in foreign exchange carries risks, including those from leverage. Caution is necessary, as total investment loss can happen. Recently, we’ve seen a steady climb, even with short-term corrections. The index is firmly above the VWAP mid-line, supporting a bullish outlook—at least for now. The key takeaway is that, while the price has cooled from recent highs, we haven’t seen a structural shift. Momentum may have flattened, but it hasn’t reversed. Shorter timeframes show some indecisiveness in the 5,960 to 5,977 area, which has become an active battleground. If we drop below 5,969, expect more traders to step back temporarily, leading to a possible move toward the POC around 5,904, where buyers and sellers find balance. Jackson’s advice on risk suggests keeping exposure under 1% per position, especially during times of overlapping data or low liquidity near the end of New York trading hours. Given the increased volatility from last week’s foreign policy news, this advice is not just cautious—it’s a smart strategy.

Approaching Potential Market Moves

Looking ahead to next week, if the price retests 5,904 and sees buying interest—ideally with a volume spike above a 15-minute VWAP—it could push up toward 5,932. If early Monday brings pressure below 5,960, what seemed like bullish consolidation might shift to short trades. This relies not on sentiment but on how the price interacts with volume-weighted levels. Patel’s note about the bounce near 5,917 forming structural support is valid, especially as it aligns with a lower volume node from last Thursday. We favor a watch-and-wait strategy—only taking positions when there’s clear rejection confirmed by order flow. It’s tempting to get ahead of moves, but thin volume can lead to slippage and weak breakouts. This environment requires decision-making based on real-time data, not static assumptions. We’re nearing areas where options positioning, especially around the critical 6,000 mark, might create pinning effects. It’s beneficial to monitor daily changes in open interest for weekly expirations, which can signal short gamma-driven moves, especially on Mondays and Thursdays. Considering how last week’s geopolitical events influenced the market, staying updated on international developments is crucial. Pay attention not only to headline risks but also to early signs from currency markets, which often detect shifts in risk sentiment ahead of index futures. If minor downturns in risk assets occur alongside widening spreads or a stronger yen, reconsider aggressive long positions near resistance. For any momentum-based trading, wait for volume confirmation—volume above the rolling session average is essential. Without this, valid signals can blend into noise. Let participant activity confirm the bias before taking action. All these triggers reflect probabilities rather than certainties. Moves toward 5,870 or beyond 6,000 need more than just direction—they require liquidity convergence and trader commitment. Let’s focus on being observers first, then participants. When liquidity tightens, reacting emotionally should be a last resort. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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