An official from China’s National Bureau of Statistics stated that the economy is growing steadily despite current challenges. Demand for productivity is increasing, and employment remains stable. The economy is facing obstacles, yet it continues to develop positively. China is also working to diversify and strengthen trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road initiative. Recent data from April shows that China’s industrial output rose by 6.1% from the previous year, exceeding the expected 5.5%. However, this is a decrease from March’s growth of 7.7%. In contrast, China’s apparent oil demand fell by 5.6% year-on-year in April. The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a trend that, while rocky, still provides some reassurance. Growth is slowly increasing. Employment levels are close to targets. Furthermore, there are efforts to enhance trade connections, especially through the Belt and Road initiative. This strategy helps strengthen resilience beyond domestic factors, even as internal consumption fluctuates. Industrial data from April shows something important. Output grew more than expected, hitting 6.1%, which was above the forecast of 5.5%. This may indicate that manufacturing is picking up momentum. However, the decline from March’s 7.7% suggests inconsistency. While factories are active, growth is not uniform. There’s a steady rhythm, but it still varies. On the other hand, oil demand presents a different picture. It decreased by over 5% during the same month, indicating that either there is enough inventory or that some industrial areas are slowing down. Such a drop typically does not align with a robust economy. It raises caution for sectors heavily reliant on fuel, such as transportation, construction, and machinery production. There may also be seasonal changes, such as businesses tightening up before a new quarter. From our perspective, this situation calls for careful assessment. The contrast between increasing output and falling energy demand is concerning. One positive trend does not guarantee a broader recovery, especially when key commodities are declining. Strategies that depend heavily on raw materials should be re-evaluated due to this decline in energy demand. This does not necessarily mean weakness across all sectors, but there is uncertainty about sustained demand overall. Given the data, it’s reasonable to expect that positions linked to commodities reflecting industrial activity, especially energy consumption, may require adjustments. Taking a more active approach to hedging or adjusting expiration dates towards the end of summer may help mitigate risks. Volatility related to trade could resurface, especially with new deals or policy changes from Belt and Road partners. The drop in apparent oil demand also suggests that traders should consider sectors sensitive to fuel imports or logistical issues. If reduced consumption continues into May, long-term investments in refinery margins or maritime transport could be at risk. This situation may not reverse quickly, so it is better to manage risk carefully now rather than react hastily later. It’s important to note that even though industrial data exceeded expectations, the gap between market predictions and actual results is narrowing. This suggests that analysts are adjusting their forecasts rather than expecting major increases. For volatility exposure, this could mean more minor fluctuations rather than large swings. Where policy remains supportive and export routes remain open, we’ll identify which sector tends to diverge. Our focus will be on trends, not just breakpoints. For now, any adjustments should happen gradually and thoughtfully.

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