A representative from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that consumer spending will have a bigger impact on economic growth in the future. They highlighted that, despite facing a tough global situation and internal challenges, there are many positive factors that can help the economy continue to recover. In April, outside influences increased, but the recovery of the economy continued. The gradual rollout of policies is expected to support this recovery and improve the economy. Earlier reports indicated that China’s industrial output grew by 6.1% in April 2025 compared to the same month last year. This growth was higher than the expected 5.5% but lower than the 7.7% increase from the previous year. Chinese officials remain confident about the economy’s steady growth despite current challenges.

Consumption Driving Future Growth

These comments show that officials believe consumer spending, rather than investment or exports, will play a larger role in future growth. This indicates a shift toward focusing on domestic demand and suggests ongoing government support to increase spending at home. Although there are still global uncertainties and local issues, officials are relying on various structural supports—like policy changes, ongoing reforms, and subsidies—to maintain positive momentum over time. The rise in industrial production by 6.1% year-on-year shows continued strength, especially since it exceeded market expectations. However, it’s important to note that this growth is slower than the previous month, highlighting some underlying issues likely caused by weaker external orders and a sluggish real estate market. Still, the growth beyond expectations indicates that production strength is not completely fading; there’s still some resilience left, even if it is diminishing. Those looking at these indicators should not see the increase in consumer spending as just a prediction but as a sign of future trends. The emphasis from the Bureau is intentional—it signals where new support might be focused. Instead of relying heavily on infrastructure boosts, there may be more initiatives aimed at increasing household income or making credit easier to access, particularly for smaller cities and rural areas.

Global Tensions and Local Impacts

The figures from April were released during a time of rising global tensions and low investor confidence. The fact that industrial growth held steady amid these conditions suggests that local issues are starting to improve. Upcoming announcements regarding monetary policy changes—like possible adjustments to interest rates or reserve requirements—will be important to watch, especially for those following short-term trends in commodities and manufacturing. The current narrative indicates stability supported by government confidence; however, this shouldn’t be mistaken for complacency. For those monitoring future contracts, it’s likely that volatility will remain high in the short term, especially in sectors that depend on trade or face significant debt. In the upcoming sessions, trends in retail sales and service-sector PMI data may provide clearer signals. Finally, solid information about stimulus timing and size—especially related to urban development or energy shifts—will be more significant than broad optimistic statements. Once clarity improves, expect clearer direction. Until then, maintaining defensive strategies may be wise, especially for contracts influenced by consumer finance or cyclical electronics. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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