The EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.13 after a strong rise during the day. This increase suggests a recovery after the European session, but different timeframes show mixed signals. Short-term indicators suggest possible pullbacks, while the long-term outlook is positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates neutral momentum, while the MACD shows some selling pressure. However, the Average Directional Index (ADI) suggests buying pressure continues.

Moving Averages Analysis

Moving averages give a brighter long-term view, with the 10-day exponential and simple moving averages showing bullish trends. Yet, the 20-day simple moving average is indicating selling pressure, which may hinder further recovery. On the 4-hour chart, the outlook remains bullish. The MACD shows buying momentum, and short-term moving averages suggest continued buying interest. Support is around 1.1230, while resistance could emerge near 1.1280. Wider Fibonacci levels suggest support between 1.0400 and 1.0900 and resistance may extend beyond 1.1500. These details help in understanding potential breakout scenarios in the market.

Market Positioning Strategy

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating its gains around the 1.13 mark after rising intraday, likely due to renewed demand at key technical areas. However, short-term indicators show some hesitation, as intraday tools indicate a slowdown. The RSI, which measures momentum, did not confirm the latest rise and remains neutral, implying that market confidence may not be strong enough. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing sell signals, which contrasts with the bullish trend seen in longer timeframes. The ADI still supports upward movement, though. Looking at moving averages, the 10-day exponential and simple lines suggest prices may continue to rise. However, the 20-day simple moving average is acting as resistance, indicating that maintaining recent gains may be challenging without stronger demand. In the 4-hour timeframe, intentions are clearer. The MACD shows bullish momentum again, and both EMAs and SMAs are trending upwards, indicating buying pressure above recent support at 1.1230. If this support holds, resistance is likely forming near 1.1280. Breaking through this level could allow for more upward movement in the short term. Additionally, the broader Fibonacci levels from 1.0400 to 1.0900 highlight historical areas of market activity. These levels are often pivotal for gauging market structure. On the upper side, resistance above 1.1500 remains a possibility, especially if the current rally progresses smoothly. We believe monitoring both medium-to-long-term technical signals and short-term hesitations is key for managing market positioning. We prefer setups where momentum aligns with these larger trends, especially through dip-buying strategies around support areas, as long as the structure of the move stays intact. Being patient and waiting for confirmation at critical levels will be more beneficial than reacting to every small price change. With signals varying across timeframes, how the market reacts to specific levels will guide our strategy in the coming sessions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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