NASDAQ futures faced challenges on Tuesday, struggling to break past the 21,461 resistance level, which combines the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement with the Value Area High. Support was strong at 21,311, made up of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Point of Control, allowing for a brief rebound within the range of 21,311 to 21,461. During the mid-session, futures moved around 21,405 (the VWAP mid-line) before dropping below 21,360, pulling the price back to 21,315 by the end of the trading day. In the London session, a bullish outlook is possible if 21,315 holds and rebounds, aiming for targets at 21,360 and 21,461. If prices close below 21,300, though, the mood may shift. On the other hand, a failure or rejection at 21,360 could lead to declines, targeting 21,251 and then 21,065.

Intraday Market Analysis

For the US session, reclaiming the range of 21,360–21,405 would open a bullish path toward 21,557 and higher. Conversely, dropping below 21,315 could signal falls to 20,932 and more. Medium-term indicators suggest that a breakout above 21,557 would shift sentiment positively, while a close under 21,405 would do the opposite. Traders must prioritize risk management through defined stop-loss orders and careful position sizing. Recent price activity shows a market trapped in a tight range around 21,311–21,461, influenced by key volume and retracement zones. Buyers have made attempts to push the index above resistance, but sellers at the Fibonacci cluster and Value Area High have held them back. The consistent bounce off 21,311 highlights its significance—traders are treating it as a critical level. We observed the price fluctuating around the VWAP line during the mid-session, frequently testing yet lacking momentum. A drop below 21,360 sent futures back to earlier lows, indicating weak buying support. If prices can’t stay above the 21,360–21,405 range soon, we could revisit lower support levels, particularly around 21,251. Falling below that would draw focus even lower to 21,065, which poses a risk to the broader trend. From a shorter-term perspective, maintaining the price above 21,315—and moving through 21,360 toward 21,461—is vital for sustaining momentum strategies. The reclaiming of these levels before the US cash open could set the next target near 21,557. Clearing that level might lead to stronger bullish momentum, at least temporarily, shifting market sentiment favorably toward the long side.

Technical Support and Resistance

Should the bounce near 21,360 turn weak again, sellers may increase their activity, filling in gaps from earlier sessions. The 21,251 mark would draw attention, serving as both a target and a warning—underlying volume support between 21,200 and 21,250 is thin and vulnerable. Falling below 21,251 could accelerate declines to 20,932, where we observe stronger volume interest. Short-term traders need to focus on the precision of closing prices rather than just intraday movements. A sustained close below 21,315 would dramatically shift the outlook. Bulls would need to re-evaluate their strategy, while bears might target lower supports. We see 21,315 as a warning level—losing it decisively would mean further bullish hopes are unfounded for the session. Proper risk management remains essential for all traders. Those using larger positions or leverage should avoid impulsive entries, especially in this fluctuating market. Predefined exits and position sizing according to volatility are essential. Deviating from disciplined entry points around key levels has already cost some traders. Right now, depending solely on momentum is likely to yield mixed results without confirmation from significant volume shifts. In summary, a clear daily close above 21,557 is necessary to change the broader positioning. Until then, prices are likely to move back and forth, offering range-bound opportunities but potentially frustrating those aiming for directional plays. Keep a close watch on not just where prices move—but how long they stay there. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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