Continuing jobless claims in the United States hit 1.903 million for the week ending May 9, exceeding the expected 1.89 million. This rise indicates that economic conditions are being closely watched by stakeholders. EUR/USD is under pressure, remaining below the 1.1300 support level. A rebound in the US Dollar, spurred by strong business activity reports, has made it difficult for this currency pair.

GBP/USD Bullish Trend

GBP/USD is on a bullish trend, trading above 1.3400. Strong flash UK PMIs have boosted the British Pound, allowing it to maintain daily gains. Gold has stabilized around $3,300 per troy ounce, benefiting from the firm US Dollar. However, cautious market sentiment is limiting price drops for gold. Bitcoin has soared to over $110,000, celebrating Bitcoin Pizza Day with enthusiasts. Despite strong retail buying, institutional investors are more cautious, considering macroeconomic risks and uncertainties.

Economic Data Overview

This data provides an overview of the week’s economic events and how markets have responded. The rise in US continuing jobless claims suggests a cooling labor market. While the increase isn’t drastic, it indicates that employers may be hesitant, especially in certain sectors. We see this subtle rise as a soft signal. Companies aren’t rushing to rehire, and some sectors show early signs of strain due to higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions. For traders in employment-related contracts, the response from bond yields and rate-sensitive assets indicates sensitivity to any surprises in the weekly data. There’s no need for panic, but this data shouldn’t be overlooked. If claims continue to rise in the coming weeks, especially alongside Friday’s payroll figures, we could see stronger reactions across currencies and short-term Treasury futures. In the currency market, the Euro is struggling, with EUR/USD sliding further below 1.1300. This trend is largely due to the dollar’s strength from positive US business activity reports seen in recent ISM services and manufacturing data. The FX market’s reaction suggests that the Federal Reserve may delay easing rates, which supports the dollar in the short term. Any rally attempts in this currency pair must consider this narrative, as traders may anticipate limited upside while this rate story holds. In contrast, the British Pound has shown resilience. After gaining from solid domestic PMI figures, GBP/USD is rising and holding above 1.3400. The PMI data reflects improved output and a rebound in new orders, suggesting better near-term growth for the UK economy. Additionally, inflationary components in the services PMIs showed moderation, easing the Bank of England’s challenges. Traders with long positions in sterling futures should watch for upcoming data surprises, especially in retail sales and inflation, as these will impact future rate expectations. Gold has found a stable position around $3,300 per ounce. A steady dollar would typically weigh on bullion, but gold has managed to hold its ground. This implies that traders are weighing economic risks against liquidity flows into safe-haven assets. Notably, gold ETF inflows saw a slight increase midweek, signaling some guarded optimism. In the derivatives market, we’ve noticed a rise in short-dated call options, suggesting modest upside positioning while maintaining protection. Futures rollover into the next quarter will likely stay within the current range unless new market shocks occur. Bitcoin continues its ascent, now above $110,000, coinciding with Bitcoin Pizza Day. However, celebration shouldn’t overshadow deeper concerns. Retail interest is high, but large funds are exercising caution, focusing more on potential challenges. These include upcoming regulatory deadlines in the US and discussions on fiscal conditions. Open interest in long-dated Bitcoin futures is growing, but the premium to spot is narrow, indicating tempered enthusiasm due to policy uncertainty. We’ve observed that traders are focusing increasingly on breakout strategies and quick retracements, suggesting a more tactical approach than one driven by strong conviction. Overall, these price levels and trends give us clear reference points. We consistently monitor volatility across asset class derivatives, particularly in FX and crypto options, as they provide insights into where the next strong directional moves may occur. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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