The chances of crude oil hitting $72 are rising as the market expects higher demand. Even with recent negative news about supply, like Saudi Arabia urging OPEC+ to increase production, the market is focusing on future demand instead. Demand is a key factor, supported by global economic improvements, tax cuts, less regulation, and lower trade tensions. These elements are driving growth and boosting expectations for crude oil demand.

Bearish Market Positioning

Bearish positioning in crude oil indicates that prices could increase quickly if there’s a breakout. On the WTI crude oil 4-hour chart, the price has climbed above the $64 resistance and is now testing the $65 trendline. This area is crucial, with sellers looking for a possible drop to $55, while buyers are preparing to push towards $72. The article suggests that crude oil prices are poised to rise mainly because investors are betting on stronger demand. While there are signs of increased supply—particularly pressure on OPEC+ to pump more oil—traders seem to be less concerned with production news. Instead, their expectations align with the solid global economic momentum building. This renewed optimism stems from several developments: trade tensions are easing, tax policies are becoming more favorable, regulations are changing, and central banks are easing monetary policies. All these factors support economic activity and increase demand for oil. Thus far, the market has chosen to focus on demand optimism rather than worries about more oil being produced. Let’s look at the technical levels next. In shorter time frames, like the 4-hour view of WTI, oil has moved past the solid resistance at $64 per barrel and is now testing levels above $65. This area is filled with activity from both buyers and sellers; sellers are on the lookout for signs of weakness to push prices back down to $55, while buyers are accumulating with hopes of reaching $72 if momentum remains strong.

Technical Levels and Market Movements

Positioning in the derivatives market suggests there is room for further gains. This market isn’t heavily weighted with bullish bets. Many traders are sitting on the sidelines or have a negative outlook, which means rapid repositioning could happen if prices rise substantially. Short-covering could amplify any rally above $65, especially as buyers seize the chance to join the upward trend. This is a time for vigilance. The $65 zone is significant—it attracts trading volume, stop orders, and emotions. Derivative traders should monitor volume responses as we approach $66 and beyond. We’ve seen similar situations before. When skepticism faces consistent buying, unexpected moves occur, not because the charts predict them but because traders are misaligned with price actions. If the $66-$67 range is cleared decisively—supported by substantial volume—momentum strategies could quickly switch to follow mode. We’ve noticed that large players seem ready for volatility in this area. On the downside, the $64 level now serves as support. A drop below this level with heavy selling could force new long positions to exit quickly. This could lead us back to the earlier congestion zone around $60, and possibly lower to the $55 area where sellers have been gathering. In the near term, we shouldn’t assume that past reactions to OPEC+ discussions will continue indefinitely. If production increases are confirmed or if inventories start rising unexpectedly, these would be important shifts to include in risk assessments. For now, however, our focus is on price reactions rather than the news. As we monitor the area around $65-$66, volatility strategies may offer more promising returns than straightforward positions. If upward momentum continues while positioning remains misaligned, even directional bets might encounter sessions where the risk-to-reward ratio is more favorable. This moment is less about predictions and more about being ready for acceleration—whichever direction it takes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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