Market liquidity on Monday mornings is usually low until Asian markets kick off trading, which can lead to price swings. As the new forex week begins, there’s little change from the past Friday, although the USD and JPY are showing slight strength. Despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East over the weekend, currency values have remained stable since late Friday. Current rates include EUR/USD at 1.1532, USD/JPY at 143.90, and GBP/USD at 1.3559. Other rates are USD/CHF at 0.8116, USD/CAD at 1.3591, AUD/USD at 0.6483, and NZD/USD at 0.6010. Prices can shift throughout the day as more markets open. To put it simply, liquidity is usually lower at the start of the trading week, especially on Monday mornings. This lack of activity can create gaps or sudden price changes, not always based on fresh news but rather because fewer traders are active. The calm we’re seeing in the FX market—despite other global issues—can largely be attributed to this lack of participation. The figures show some strength in both the dollar and the yen, but there’s no strong trend in either direction. We’re seeing stability rather than momentum right now. This early Asian trading typically isn’t very loud, so the lack of significant movement provides little insight into how traders in New York or London might react. Weekend news didn’t seem impactful enough to drastically change currency values by Monday morning, but traders will still analyze it closely as trading volumes increase. When looking at individual currency pairs, a few things stand out. The Canadian dollar remains weak against the dollar, and the Australian dollar stays just below 0.65. The New Zealand dollar is also having trouble holding above 0.60. These weaker commodity currencies reflect a general tone of risk aversion, although there’s currently no panic. It’s more about hesitance; there’s no aggressive buying or selling—just a holding pattern for now. For those of us focused on volatility or managing short-term trades, what’s crucial in the upcoming sessions is whether this quiet start in Asia carries over into Europe or if traders begin to position themselves with directional bets. The yen’s slight strength might indicate some preparations for unexpected global news, especially regarding energy or geopolitical issues. Rates like USD/CHF trading below 0.82 are still within familiar ranges, and the euro-dollar hasn’t convincingly broken above 1.1550. The pound-dollar is also showing limited strength, and without significant shifts in rate differentials or unexpected economic news, further gains may be hard to come by. Currently, there’s no dramatic repositioning of macro risks in the currency markets, suggesting expectations haven’t changed much since Friday. However, this does not mean traders are complacent; it just indicates that everyone is waiting for catalysts for larger reactions. Keep an eye on increased volatility. If we see larger hourly price ranges as European markets open, it could indicate a readiness to move these pairs out of their current ranges. We will adjust our strategies accordingly. Monday mornings usually lack strong conviction, but they set the tone—especially regarding where options are placed and whether stop-loss orders are too close to market prices. Let’s monitor the situation and reassess after the London market opens.

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