FX option expiries for June 20 at 10 a.m. New York time focus on EUR/USD. Key levels to watch are 1.1500 and 1.1520, as today the dollar is weaker. These expiries could affect price movements, especially since important hourly moving averages are close by at 1.1504-16. There are headline risks linked to the Middle East that traders are keeping an eye on before the weekend. The levels mentioned, particularly around 1.1500 to 1.1520, can pull prices as the expiry approaches. With the dollar showing weakness today, prices might drift toward these levels if intraday volatility stays low. We see such levels, along with 1-hour moving averages near 1.1504 and 1.1516, as short-term magnets for price action. The mention of geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, suggests there could be sudden changes in market sentiment. This is especially significant on Thursdays and Fridays when traders reassess their positions before the weekend. High premiums in short-dated options often reflect these concerns. Historically, we’ve seen volatility increase ahead of uncertain geopolitical situations, even when spot prices remain stable. Traders can position around these expiry levels not just by taking direct bets, but by looking for imbalances in risk pricing. For example, they may sell options when implied volatility is high and there’s little real movement, or buy volatility (gamma) if the New York session breaks important technical levels early. The current trend of dollar weakness may encourage bullish strategies, but any long positions must confront the option barriers above. Counteracting price movements as expiry approaches has been effective when large volumes exist around realized volatility. In past cases where expiry levels coincided with technical congestion, prices often move slowly with less momentum, resulting in a decrease in implied volatility. Patience is crucial during these times; traders should avoid forcing trades based on assumptions of sudden price changes unless significant macroeconomic events suggest otherwise. In conclusion, we prepare for expiry sessions by analyzing not just the strike prices but also the time decay and how close prices are to their realized distribution. When macro news coincides with large expiries—and major levels are nearby—there’s often a situation that traders like us closely monitor.

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