The European session will release Flash PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK. These indicators will evaluate the current economic activity and inflation in these areas. Although geopolitical issues, like the situation between Israel and Iran, are being watched, they are not expected to impact trade much as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays open. During the American session, the focus will shift to the Flash US PMIs, which aim to uncover economic trends and inflationary pressures. Most Federal Reserve officials, aside from Waller, are cautious about rate cuts, which might not happen until September. Decisions on rate cuts will rely on summer economic data.

Central Bank Speaker Schedule

The schedule for central bank speakers includes: – Fed’s Waller at 07:00 GMT – ECB’s Lagarde at 13:00 GMT – Fed’s Bowman at 14:00 GMT – Fed’s Goolsbee at 17:10 GMT – Fed’s Kugler at 18:30 GMT These speakers have varying levels of influence, from dovish to neutral, in their respective monetary institutions. The initial report shows that preliminary purchasing managers’ indexes (Flash PMIs) give a quick view of private sector performance. These figures measure the strength of manufacturing and services in key economies: France, Germany, the Euro area, and the UK. They help indicate consumer demand and corporate output while offering insights into future price behaviors for goods and services. In short, these numbers help traders gauge the current business climate and whether inflationary pressures are increasing or decreasing. Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, markets seem to be downplaying these risks for now. As long as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz without interruptions, energy prices and inflation are likely to stay stable in the near term. However, any changes could significantly impact expectations. In the United States, attention is also on their Flash PMI releases. These figures will directly influence the rate cut debate. Most Federal Reserve officials are adopting a patient approach, preferring to wait for data over the coming months. Only Waller is leaning toward initiating cuts sooner. Until we see clearer signals—especially regarding inflation decreasing without harming growth—we don’t expect major changes in guidance. September seems like the earliest point for a reassessment.

Implications For Market Participants

Today’s speaker lineup includes voices from both sides of the Atlantic. Waller starts the day, followed by Lagarde around midday, and then three Fed speakers — Bowman, Goolsbee, and Kugler — in the afternoon. Their varying perspectives, from dovish to neutral, will impact the significance of their comments. Even slight tone changes from usually cautious speakers can quickly influence futures pricing. For those involved in options and futures, this series of releases and speeches offers opportunities to adjust positions. Weak PMI data, especially from Germany or the US, might prompt new hedging or long volatility strategies, although reactions may be less pronounced in the UK unless the figures deviate significantly. Additionally, any unexpected updates from speakers should be responded to quickly—within the hour, not the next day. Market participants must be prepared to act decisively on surprising data. Delaying for confirmation can be costly, especially in short-term spreads that depend on differing expectations. We are focusing on setups that could widen the policy gap between the ECB and the Fed, especially if inflation decreases faster in the Euro area. However, we are also closely monitoring indications that the Fed might maintain a cautious stance longer than anticipated, which could support USD and impact EUR/USD volatility. This upcoming week will be active, so it’s crucial to stay alert. This is not the time for assumptions. Keep your trading terminals ready. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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