The crude oil market is holding steady, even after recent U.S. military actions against Iran. Traders seem to expect that tensions will ease, making it unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will close. After an initial price spike from Israel’s attack on Iran, the market stabilized, wiping out gains from the U.S. strikes over the weekend. Current trading actions indicate that traders are not overly worried about the conflict impacting oil supply. The main concern currently is the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices will likely stay the same unless clear signs emerge of reduced conflict or disruptions to oil exports through the Strait. On the daily chart, crude oil prices failed to break a major trendline and have filled the initial opening gap. Prices are oscillating between a support level of 72.00 and a resistance level of 78.00. This range may continue unless there are strong indicators of decreased tensions or export disruptions. The 1-hour chart shows limited movement within this range, with buying interest around the 72.00 level pushing prices higher. Sellers will need to push prices below 72.00 to trigger a significant drop towards 65.00. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the oil market has shown surprising resilience, staying in a defined channel. The expected knee-jerk reactions to military actions did not last long, and any increased activity was quickly absorbed by the market, indicating traders are comfortable that supply won’t be disrupted soon. Current watched levels remain unchanged. Prices gravitate around previously tested levels, with buyers frequently entering around 72.00. This level now acts as a reliable floor; only sustained selling pressure with increased volume is likely to break it. Sellers are interested but lack momentum. Until this level is convincingly broken, it is viewed more as an opportunity for traders rather than a risk. Daily price actions suggest a tendency to focus on fundamental data rather than headline risks. Short-term spikes caused by breaking news are seen as temporary, and traders are likely to fade rallies as long as supply flows remain uninterrupted. A significant move past 78.00 could lead to repositioning, but without new catalysts indicating supply issues or diplomatic progress, it’s likely to revert. The technical ceiling remains respected, where long positions show little interest and short positions gain confidence. We anticipate ongoing oscillations. Late last week, the market tested the upper limit but couldn’t hold above it, causing prices to revert towards the midpoint. This mid-range action will continue unless new information prompts a reassessment of the current situation. The shorter hourly timeframe adds clarity. Buying activity is predictable and appears reliably near the 72.00 mark, without extending far during daily trading. While these bounces are opportunistic, they lack deeper conviction. If this pattern continues, it may attract trend-followers who like this kind of mechanical trading. However, if buyers cannot reclaim the upper edge of the channel soon, this upward movement could fade. A drop below 71.80 with volume would signal a possible shift in trader sentiment. While geopolitics remain in focus, the consistent technical structure is providing clearer direction. We’ve only seen slight deviations from the range, all of which have been reversed quickly. Unless there are significant changes in shipping or regional flows, most trading will continue to rely on short-term positions rather than strong directional beliefs. For those monitoring the spreads, no significant shift has emerged that would lead to a reassessment of directional trends. Structural backwardation remains but hasn’t intensified enough to indicate inventory problems or rapid drawdowns, suggesting supply chains are operating without disruption from a price perspective. Volatility remains low. A move outside this calm environment could trigger broader repositioning, especially from those who have been countering movements within the range. However, such strategies have been effective so far unless there’s a structural issue, which has not yet occurred. With this in mind, we are positioning ourselves near the boundaries with tighter risk limits, focusing only on moves that show confirmed breakout signals through flow or volume. Patience is running low among traders, but maintaining discipline is key in this kind of environment.

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