Insights 
VT 
Gold prices saw a notable decline on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump declared a ‘complete and total’ ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. Spot gold slipped by 0.6% to $3,349.89 per ounce, while US gold futures dropped 0.9% to $3,364.20, marking their lowest point since 11 June.
The truce, expected to take effect within 12 hours, followed a direct phone conversation between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Reports also suggest that US officials discussed with Tehran to finalise the terms. According to a White House spokesperson, the ceasefire hinges on Iran refraining from further strikes, a condition Tehran appears willing to honour.
This abrupt easing of tensions has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. With the immediate threat of conflict subsiding, investors have begun rotating out of bullion as geopolitical premiums fade.
Technical Analysis
A glance at the 15-minute XAUUSD chart reveals the MACD crossing below its signal line, with a widening negative histogram, suggesting mounting bearish momentum. Price action has recently touched a low of $3,333.27 and is trading below all major short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30), which supports a short-term bearish view.
Unless the ceasefire breaks down, gold is likely to remain under pressure below $3,360.00 in the near term. A decisive move beneath $3,333.00 could expose the $3,315.00 support area. Any upward recovery is expected to be limited around the $3,370.00 region unless market sentiment turns risk-averse once more.
Hopes for Rate Cuts Emerge, but Fed Stays Cautious
Attention now shifts towards the US monetary policy outlook. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman hinted that the time for rate reductions may be nearing. Her comments coincided with data showing only a slight cooling in US economic activity in June, though renewed import tariffs under Trump have reintroduced inflation concerns.
Fed Governor Austan Goolsbee remarked that the economic fallout from these tariffs has been ‘more moderate’ than originally anticipated. Still, with inflation creeping higher and job creation slowing, the Fed remains in no rush to adjust policy. Markets are currently anticipating a rate cut at the 18 September meeting.
All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will testify before the House Financial Services Committee later today. While traders are hoping for clearer direction, Powell has thus far remained non-committal. Futures markets may experience increased volatility ahead of his appearance.
Should Powell adopt a more dovish tone, gold could find intraday support near $3,345.00. However, any signal of continued policy restraint from the Fed, especially in a calmer geopolitical climate, may place renewed pressure on gold prices.
