Federal Reserve speakers for Thursday are Barkin, Hammack, and Kashkari. Barkin will talk about the economy at the New York Association for Business Economics at 8:00 AM US Eastern Time (12:00 PM GMT). Hammack will give opening remarks at 9:00 AM US Eastern Time (1:00 PM GMT) during the “Building Strong and Sustainable Communities” Policy Summit 2025 hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Later, at 7:00 PM US Eastern Time (11:00 PM GMT), Kashkari will participate in a town hall and Q&A session with the Montana Chamber of Commerce. Generally, Federal Reserve officials are cautious about rate cuts. However, Governor Bowman believes policy rate adjustments are necessary, but we don’t know when she will speak next. The central bank’s current tone is careful, with officials stressing the need for more data before changing rates. Bowman stands out by showing willingness to consider further tightening if needed, which differs from the more cautious views of her colleagues. Since Barkin speaks early, we’ll need to pay close attention to whether he supports this slow approach or discusses the economy’s response to current financial conditions. His comments come as labor markets show some balance, although wage growth is still concerning. If he focuses more on real economic activity rather than inflation, it could suggest that rates may stay where they are longer. Hammack’s speech may be part of a broader civic discussion, but opening remarks often carry weight. He might talk about how monetary policy connects with regional development goals. While this isn’t directly about bond pricing, it might touch on credit access or lending stability, which influences market expectations. Kashkari’s town hall format could lead to a more open conversation. He won’t be restricted to a script, so he might share more candid views on inflation or resource use. He has previously warned about inflation risks, so if he shifts his position, it could change rate expectations, especially if he indicates a willingness to accept slightly slower growth to achieve price stability. By observing how these speakers talk about timing versus economic conditions, we can determine whether the overall sentiment is changing or remaining steady. If markets still expect mid-year easing but these comments suggest a different direction, we could see increased volatility, particularly in short-end interest rate futures. We need to remain alert as we move through this week. The lack of news on Bowman’s next appearance makes it tougher to recalibrate in the near term. So, we must stay flexible and watch how these discussions connect—not only what they say but how it fits into the broader context. If the cautious tone hardens because forward indicators soften less than anticipated, we might have to wait longer for policy relief than currently expected. We’re looking for consistency or signs of trouble—either could lead to quick changes in rate-sensitive assets.

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