The FX option expiries for July 3 include some important ones that coincide with the US jobs report release. For EUR/USD, expiries are set between 1.1750 and 1.1850. A significant expiry at 1.1800 could impact price movements until the non-farm payroll data comes out. In USD/JPY, there is an expiry at the 144.00 level, which may help limit price fluctuations around the current 100-hour moving average at 143.95. For USD/CAD, an expiry at 1.3600 is likely to keep prices steady during European trading hours. Major changes are expected after the US jobs report affects sentiment towards the dollar. Tomorrow’s expiry board is quite light since US markets will be inactive until next week. The current expiry calendar shows that short-term reactions to macroeconomic factors are closely linked to price levels affected by option flows. With thinner liquidity expected, especially before a busy data session, it is easier to see how prices might change in response to news rather than adjusting ahead of time. As significant downside gamma approaches near 1.1800 for the euro-dollar, we have stayed close to that number. We’ve seen this kind of behavior before, especially when expiries coincide with psychological levels and short-term technical barriers. It’s not about predicting how the payrolls report will turn out but understanding that shifts in rate differentials can only stay compressed for so long before the data prompts a reassessment. These situations are prime for breakout movements right after the European close, just as implied volatility starts to come into play. The dollar-yen expiry near 144.00 is more limited, yet it aligns perfectly with short-term technical support. If the price stabilizes around this level before the New York session, we can expect that options desks, particularly delta hedgers, have already worked to stabilize intraday price ranges. However, once liquidity returns, any move away from this level could happen quickly. Experience shows that when prices sit above a large expiry, post-data overshoots are often exaggerated but quick to fade, especially if positions haven’t built up significantly. On the other hand, movements in the Canadian dollar are likely to be quiet until broader influences from the US dollar appear. The 1.3600 level acts as stability during the quieter periods—not necessarily due to new activity but because the flow is more passive than active. Any reaction to the data is likely to gain momentum quickly as the expiry falls away and new levels are tested. The focus should be on being reactive rather than predictive. Tomorrow’s expiry board won’t have much impact since the American session is largely paused until next week. Thin trading volumes and less cross-border activity may lead to sharp reactions if unexpected data comes out, especially in yen pairs. It’s important to align strategies based on whether these known expiry levels will prevent price changes, merely slow them down, or not act as significant barriers once outside data resets short-term expectations. We don’t need to complicate our approach; levels that previously held prices can lose their significance quickly as new rate assumptions create shifts in currency pairs that are too close to implied volatility’s lower end. Being patient in these conditions pays off best when it’s combined with timing that respects where liquidity becomes thin and where option-related flows create pressure.

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