Technical Support Levels

As of July 4, 2025, NASDAQ futures show a short-term pullback after a strong upward move on the 30-minute chart. The market recently broke above the all-time high from December 24, creating a rising channel. After a brief pause, prices moved higher, surpassing the middle of the channel. Currently, there is a drop of about 0.6 percent, which stands out given the recent positive trends, particularly since U.S. equity markets are closed for Independence Day. However, NASDAQ futures trading is still active, with strong participation from Europe. The rejection at the mid-channel suggests that buyers are temporarily stepping back. The main technical support sits between 22,830 and 22,855, aligning with the channel’s lower edge. If this level breaks, the next significant support is at 22,775, which corresponds with the July 2 volume-weighted average price (VWAP). If prices drop below this level, we may see a larger correction or a shift in trend. The overall trend remains bullish within the channel, but today’s pullback indicates that the momentum is slowing. If buyers defend the key support areas, it could lead to another rise. Conversely, a break in support might signal caution. With reduced U.S. market participation today, we must watch these critical support levels closely. Since the primary U.S. markets are closed, lower trading volumes could lead to sharper price movements. What we’re experiencing now seems to be one of those situations—a typical pullback influenced more by lower trading activity than a shift in sentiment. In this kind of environment, even small selling can push prices down unexpectedly, especially near crucial levels.

Near Term Market Behavior

Given the recent market excitement, a short pause in price action is not a bad thing. The gains from last week had risen well past the midpoint of the channel, which usually attracts price movement. The rejection at this point shows hesitance among buyers to commit without more confirmation. We’ve seen this kind of hesitation before, particularly during sessions impacted by holidays. Currently, the range from 22,830 to 22,855 is the immediate hurdle for any further declines. This range has held firm over two sessions, serving as the foundation of the current price structure. If it breaks, it’s less about specific numbers and more about the trend—this would suggest buyers are no longer defending recent gains. The next level at 22,775 isn’t arbitrary; it has been tested in earlier weekly price movements and corresponds to a significant volume-weighted average from earlier this week, highlighting its relevance. For tactical traders, these conditions require heightened awareness. Options pricing tends to flatten in periods of low volume, but that doesn’t mean risk is reduced. Prices can drop quickly towards known liquidity spots, especially if stop orders are resting there. If the pullback escalates, option writers and delta hedgers may need to act, which could reinforce the downward move. Momentum indicators are already shifting. The speed of price changes is slowing, and we’ve noticed fewer higher highs in the intraday charts. While volume is still present, its nature has shifted—there’s more passive trading and less aggressive buying. Though the broader trend remains positive, as seen in the rising channel, we should approach the near term with caution. It’s easy to dismiss small pullbacks as noise, but they can reveal important information, particularly during times of reduced participation. For now, the focus is on that support zone. How the market reacts there will help us determine if this is just a brief pause or the beginning of a more significant downturn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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