The NZDUSD pair began the week on a downward trend influenced by the 200-hour moving average at 0.6061. A peak of 0.6058 on Monday faced selling pressure, causing a slide below the 50% retracement level at 0.5982. This threshold was surpassed several times, reaching a low of 0.5975 on Wednesday, but the downward momentum did not hold. By midweek, the pair rebounded, hitting 0.6042 early Friday, just below the 200-hour moving average now at 0.6044. Sellers consistently tested the 200-hour MA throughout the week, highlighting its significance for future trades. The 100-hour moving average at 0.6006 initially acted as support, with prices fluctuating around this level recently.

Key Technical Levels

Next week, the 100-hour MA will be crucial for market sentiment. If the pair rises from this level, attention may shift back to the 200-hour MA around 0.6036–0.6044, acting as resistance. On the other hand, if the pair drops below the 100-hour MA, it could head toward 0.5982 and the previous low of 0.5975. Sellers have the upper hand with the pair mostly below the 200-hour MA, but buyers showed resilience at the 50% retracement. The moving averages set the tone for the next move, with traders on alert for a breakout. As prices hover around the 100-hour moving average late in the week, the focus shifts from immediate direction to building momentum. The market seems to hesitate at key levels, with neither buyers nor sellers maintaining control for long. This makes the early sessions next week very important. A firm hold above 0.6006 would indicate short-term bullish momentum. However, without continued movement above 0.6044, upward attempts may struggle to gain traction.

Trader Strategies Suggestion

Sellers have quickly faded rallies at the 200-hour mark, demonstrating a lack of interest in chasing higher prices unless the pair breaks and holds above that level. If the 200-hour moving average is tested again, history suggests that selling could resume. Wilkinson’s earlier observation about the failure to maintain trades below the 50% retracement midweek continues to influence short-term bias. Falling below 0.5982 would significantly alter sentiment, indicating that buyers have stepped aside. Until then, any dip below the 100-hour average should be approached cautiously. Weakness must be backed by both volume and intent. Without these factors, any drops may attract buyers, but only within the 0.5975–0.5982 range. A move below these lows would reshape risk models that have thus far anticipated failed downward extensions. When preparing positions, it’s essential to focus on both levels and the behavior around them. This responsiveness is vital for making trades in such tight ranges. The goal should be to react to where new flows enter instead of assuming they will appear. For now, the market is contained, with momentum stalling before and after key points. Traders should be careful not to chase minor breakouts. Until there’s a sustained push beyond current averages, reaction-based strategies offer better reward-to-risk setups than directional bets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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