Insights 
VT 
Ethereum kicked off the week on the front foot, having soared past the $3,000 mark thanks to a surge in ETF inflows. But ahead lies a delicate balancing act, with inflation data and political developments in Washington poised to shape the near-term outlook.
At the heart of this rally is BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), which recorded an all-time high of $300 million in inflows last Thursday, its most substantial single-day haul to date. This boosted ETHA’s assets under management to $5.6 billion, cementing its status as the leading spot Ethereum ETF in the United States. Across all Ethereum-linked ETFs, roughly $703 million was channelled in last week, their third-largest weekly intake since inception.
Momentum has been gathering for some time. The 30-day average trading volume for ETHA has climbed to 18.83 million shares, up from about 13 million in early June. Trading hit a fever pitch last Wednesday, with 43 million ETHA shares changing hands, the highest daily volume since launch. And this isn’t just short-term capital on the move. Since early June, ETHA has seen net inflows exceeding $1.2 billion, including $159 million on Tuesday alone, its biggest single-day tally since 11 June.
Options Market Echoes The Optimism
The options market is singing the same tune. Bullish positioning dominates, with call options heavily outweighing puts across several expiries. ETHA’s open interest has reached a one-year high, reflecting widespread expectations of continued gains. For options expiring 18 July, traders are clustering around the $22 strike (roughly $3,000 ETH), with noticeable interest building at $23 and $24, a signal that traders aren’t just expecting Ethereum to hold ground, but to push toward $3,200.
This optimism extends into later expiries. For 25 July, call options at $23 and $24 remain dominant, while lighter interest at $25 and $26 implies some traders are eyeing a move as high as $3,300. The same trend can be seen in the 1 and 8 August expiries, where calls outweigh puts right up to $26. With little downside protection evident, traders expect ETH to remain above $3,000, with room to climb further if momentum holds.
‘Crypto Week’ In Washington Poses Pivotal Test
Ethereum’s bullish run doesn’t exist in isolation. It comes during a crucial week in Washington, as US lawmakers embark on what’s been dubbed ‘Crypto Week’. The House is reviewing three landmark bills that could dramatically reshape the nation’s crypto regulatory framework.
Top of the list is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which seeks to distinguish between securities and commodities. The bill would give the CFTC oversight of crypto markets and provide regulatory exemptions for mature decentralised networks, a long-standing request from the industry.
More immediately impactful is the GENIUS Act, designed to create a proper framework for stablecoins. The legislation, which already enjoys bipartisan backing and Senate approval, mandates full 1:1 reserve backing, licensing, and regular disclosures. It also brings stablecoin issuers under the Bank Secrecy Act. President Trump has signalled support, which could speed up passage. Stablecoins underpin crypto liquidity, and regulatory clarity here could pave the way for larger institutional flows into Ethereum and similar assets.
Meanwhile, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act aims to prevent the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional consent. Although politically charged, the bill aligns with pro-crypto sentiment, advocating for open networks over centralised control.
Even if not all three bills pass this week, their progress is already influencing sentiment. The very act of bringing them to the table signals a step closer to regulatory clarity, and markets are responding.
Strong Momentum, But Not Without Risks
That said, caution is warranted. Analysts at Citi have reiterated that digital assets remain far from earning their place as conventional safe-haven investments like gold. Ethereum’s pace of ascent, though underpinned by strong inflows, could trigger a bout of profit-taking or exhaustion, especially among leveraged long holders or deep-in-the-money options traders.
At present, Ethereum’s upward move appears to be backed by real capital and shifting regulation. Retail and institutional players are responding accordingly. Provided ETF flows remain steady and legislative momentum continues, the recovery remains on solid footing. But as always in crypto, volatility is never far behind.
Market Movements Of The Week
The US dollar index (USDX) is slowly grinding higher, but it’s approaching a key test. Price action near the 97.70 zone may act as a turning point. If USD strength pushes beyond that level, bears are eyeing the next resistance around 98.10. A breakout here could reshape short-term expectations for FX pairs, especially if Tuesday’s US CPI surprises to the upside.
EURUSD is drifting lower, with traders now watching for signs of bullish reversal at 1.1660 or 1.1605. These levels represent key structure zones, and a CPI beat could keep the euro on the defensive. However, any softness in inflation could ignite a retracement rally, particularly if European sentiment stabilises.
GBPUSD has entered a slower consolidation phase. With UK CPI due Wednesday, bulls are looking for a bounce near 1.3415. That zone could offer a tactical long setup if inflation surprises are mild. But if broader USD strength continues, any upside may remain capped under 1.3535–1.3570 resistance.
USDJPY has already rejected from the 147.75 zone and is now consolidating. If the pair breaks higher on fresh inflation momentum, 148.05 becomes the next upside magnet. However, traders should be cautious, since any rejection near these levels could signal a short-term top.
USDCHF continues to inch upward, heading toward 0.8050. With little data from Switzerland this week, USD direction will likely dictate where this pair goes next. Traders should watch closely how the price behaves once it reaches that resistance.
In the commodity currencies, AUDUSD is holding above its consolidation zone. If price remains stable around 0.6550, bulls may step in ahead of Thursday’s Australian jobs report. A move higher would put 0.6665 back on the radar. Similarly, NZDUSD has traded down from the 0.6050 level and may print a new swing low before finding support. Watch for base-building before considering long positions.
USDCAD is testing the 1.3715 resistance area. If price breaks through with conviction, especially post-CPI, it could quickly move to test the 1.37587 high. The tug-of-war between Canadian inflation and US macro signals will be central here.
Commodities remain on a knife’s edge. USOIL has rallied slightly but faces resistance at 71.80 and 73.40. These zones are likely to draw selling interest unless supply-side headlines extend the bounce. On the downside, 63.35 and 61.00 remain key supports to watch for reversal setups.
Gold has finally broken above its trendline, suggesting bullish momentum is beginning to return. If prices consolidate cleanly above the breakout zone, bulls will likely aim for 3340 next. However, any renewed dollar strength could limit upside, especially as traders reassess inflation and rate cut timelines in the US.
The SP500 is walking a tightrope. Trump’s renewed tariff threats against Mexico and Europe are clouding what was a strong trend higher. Price has support around 6230, with deeper downside capped at 6170. If bulls recover control, 6400 and 6630 are the next upside levels to monitor.
Bitcoin is back on the rise after a shallow consolidation. Price is approaching the 122,100 to 124,720 zone, a key area where profit-taking could occur. Still, momentum remains constructive, and the broader crypto environment continues to benefit from ETF flows and the regulatory optimism spilling over from Ethereum.
Natural Gas (NG) is still dancing around the 3.35 zone. If it pushes higher, 3.40 is the next resistance level to watch. Volatility remains high here as seasonal shifts and supply dynamics continue to affect trader sentiment.
This week’s price action is less about chasing breakouts and more about timing entries at known technical zones. Many major pairs are sitting near decision points. Patience and precision will be key as traders wait for the next macro catalyst to tip the scales.
Key Events of the Week
After a relatively quiet start to the month, this week swings the spotlight back onto macro data. Traders won’t have to guess where market sentiment might shift next with the calendar loaded with reports that could redefine interest rate expectations across major currencies.
All eyes are first on Tuesday, 15 July, where both Canada and the United States drop their latest inflation readings. For Canada, the CPI y/y is forecast at 3.60%, down from the previous 3.85%. A softer print could reignite dovish bets for the Bank of Canada, particularly if USD strength persists. However, the crosscurrents from ongoing US tariff issues may muddy CAD’s reaction, especially if broader risk appetite begins to falter.
The US print could steal the show. Headline CPI y/y is forecast to rise to 2.60%, up from 2.40%. This is not the direction markets nor the Trump administration want to see. A hotter inflation number here could stall any discussion of near-term rate cuts from the Fed. The result? A stronger dollar and potentially sharp downside in risk-sensitive FX pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Even equities may pause if markets begin re-pricing the Fed’s glidepath.
On Wednesday, 16 July, the UK delivers its CPI data, forecast flat at 3.40% y/y. With no change expected, the report may take a back seat unless there’s a surprise. But traders should still watch price action around this release, as GBPUSD sits near key resistance and could break either way on deviation.
Thursday, 17 July, kicks off with Australia’s Employment Change report, where the forecast stands at +21.0K, a rebound from last month’s -2.5K. If AUDUSD is truly building a base as recent price action suggests, this report could provide the fuel for a breakout toward 0.6665. Strong numbers here would also help anchor RBA rate expectations and calm recent concerns about domestic demand.
Later that day, the US Retail Sales m/m lands, with a forecast of 0.20%, following last month’s -0.90%. A bounce here would paint a picture of improving consumer strength, giving the Fed even more reason to delay any easing cycle. Traders should watch how the USD behaves into this print. If the number beats expectations, we could see US yields firm up again, putting pressure on gold, AUD, and equities.
