US stock indices had a mixed start to the week. The NASDAQ dipped nearly 0.10%, while the S&P index fell by 0.08%. In contrast, the Dow 30 saw a slight gain of 0.10%. The market is reacting to new tariff news. A 30% tariff on certain goods from Mexico and the EU will begin on August 1. The goal for Mexico is to tackle drug cartels, while for the EU, the focus is on fair market access and payment adjustments. At 10 AM, a key announcement from Trump about Russia and defense is expected. This may involve urging Europe to contribute more to NATO defense costs, although details are still unclear. Crude oil prices slipped by $0.23, now at $68.23, after reaching $69.61 earlier. Gold prices are stable at around $3,356. Bitcoin rose to $121,779, gaining $2,658 from its previous level of $117,500. This increase is influenced by shifts in US monetary policy and ongoing developments in the cryptocurrency space. In simpler terms, the major US stock indices behaved differently at the week’s start. One fell slightly, another stayed about the same, and the last one saw a small increase. These small shifts might seem minor, but they indicate that the markets are not fully in sync. Such patterns often appear when investors are absorbing new information without a clear direction. Here, this includes the announcement of tariffs and ongoing uncertainty in global politics. To summarize, Washington has introduced new tariffs on certain imports from Mexico and the EU, set at 30% starting this summer. The tariffs on Mexico aim to disrupt criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking. For the EU, the tariffs are justified by Washington’s desire for fairer trade access and overdue payment adjustments. As all these changes occur, the market has to consider how they might impact trade volumes and international relations, especially in sectors closely linked to imports and exports. Next, we will be watching for the announcement from the former President expected mid-morning. While the specifics of his comments remain unknown, speculation suggests topics related to military spending. Funding for collective defense agreements may become a point of discussion, revisiting older agreements under new terms. This adds more complexity to transatlantic economic relations. Commodity prices are also reflecting some uncertainty. Oil prices fell slightly after a previous rise, indicating changing expectations about supply or demand. Gold prices remained largely unchanged, suggesting that there is not much concern about inflation or political tensions at this time. In digital markets, Bitcoin stood out, rising significantly, possibly due to new hints from central banks about interest rates and digital currency policies. Renewed blockchain development has also contributed to its momentum. Digital asset markets may stay strong as long as official policies lean toward easing. Overall, the key takeaway this week is a cautious approach. The market movements show careful exploration rather than dramatic shifts. Now is the time to focus more on reactions to political and economic decisions rather than trying to predict larger trends. It’s better to monitor short-term volatility caused by political announcements or economic data instead of assuming a broader directional change. With a rising dollar and fluctuating monetary sentiment, we expect currency hedges to be costly in the short term. Keep an eye on shifts around midday updates and policy announcements. Avoid making large commitments in either direction until there is clearer indication through liquidity trends or options volatility. Being long gamma in selected products may be more effective in unpredictable market conditions than chasing big directional trades. This week, exercising restraint may bring better returns than acting on conviction.

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