Nvidia has reached new highs since its low in April 2025, showing a strong upward trend. On April 7, 2025, the company finished a pullback at 86.62. After that low, the momentum shifted toward a rally with a series of higher highs. During this phase, Nvidia reached a high of 115.44 in wave (1) and 95.04 in wave (2). Next, wave 1 of (3) came in at 143.84, followed by wave 2 at 132.93 and wave 3 at 174.53. Wave (3) exceeded the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of wave (1), indicating potential for further gains. Currently, Nvidia is retracing towards the 170.13 to 168.11 range. It’s finishing wave 4 and is likely to see a rally in wave 5 or at least bounce back in three swings.

Wave 4 Support

In wave 4, parts ((a)) and ((b)) peaked at 171.26 and 173.38, respectively. Soon, potential support could emerge to encourage a rise. Wave 5 of (3) might reach 175.9 or higher, keeping the bullish trend intact. After that, a pullback against the April low is expected, which could happen in 3, 7, or 11 swings, depending on whether the bullish momentum continues. We view the current drop towards the 170.13 to 168.11 area as a good short-term buying opportunity for bullish positions. Derivative traders might consider implementing call option strategies as the stock approaches this support zone. This aligns with the expected end of the brief wave 4 correction. Nvidia’s recent 10-for-1 stock split on June 10, 2024, has historically attracted more retail interest and liquidity. This fundamental support adds to the technical setup for another upward move. We believe strong demand for the next-generation Blackwell platform will keep positive sentiment high in the coming weeks. Implied volatility has slightly decreased from its recent highs, making call options for the next leg up more reasonably priced. Data from Cboe Global Markets shows a steady, high volume of call options, indicating widespread bullish speculation that fits with our wave 5 target. This suggests traders are positioning for a rise to the 175.9 level or beyond.

Historical Patterns Indicate Consolidation

Looking back at historical trends, the stock has experienced several quick pullbacks of 10-20% over the past 18 months, followed by notable new highs. This pattern suggests the current minor dip serves as a healthy consolidation rather than a reversal. We expect this pause to provide the momentum for the next rally. Once wave 5 completes, traders should adjust their strategies to prepare for a more substantial pullback. This may include taking profits on long positions or starting bearish positions, like buying puts, to protect against the anticipated multi-swing correction. It’s essential to watch for signs of exhaustion as prices near new highs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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