Von der Leyen plans to discuss transatlantic trade relations with President Trump in Scotland
by VT Markets
/
Jul 25, 2025
Transatlantic Trade Relations
The meeting between von der Leyen and the President is a crucial moment for the market. Her words, focusing on “how we can keep” relations strong, indicate some existing weakness in our partnership. This choice of language introduces uncertainty that traders need to consider.
The stakes are high. Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that trade between the US and EU exceeds $1.3 trillion each year. A negative outcome from this meeting in Scotland could threaten this huge economic connection, affecting many sectors. This isn’t just a minor discussion; it’s about a key part of the global economy.
We remember how the market reacted during the previous administration when tariffs on steel and aluminum were introduced. This led to sharp changes in industrial stocks and commodity prices. History shows that even the possibility of new trade barriers can lead to spikes in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), as seen during trade disputes from 2018 to 2020. We are closely monitoring this trend.
Investment Strategies
Given this situation, we recommend buying volatility before the weekend meeting. This might involve purchasing straddles or strangles on major indices like the S&P 500 (through SPY options) or the Euro Stoxx 50. These strategies can benefit from significant price moves in either direction, allowing us some protection against guessing the meeting’s outcome.
We are also focusing on sectors that are strongly affected by transatlantic trade, like German automakers and French luxury goods. Buying puts on vulnerable companies or sector-specific ETFs could be a smart way to hedge against potential tariffs, which have often been used in past conflicts.
The EUR/USD currency pair will be an important indicator of the meeting’s mood and possible results. We expect increased volatility and are considering options on currency futures to profit from any significant moves triggered by news from Scotland.
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by VT Markets
Jul 25, 2025
Insights 
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