ETH futures are showing a positive trend above 3,795.5, as noted by tradeCompass. Key profit-taking levels for those with long positions include today’s VWAP at 3,815, a liquidity pool at 3,847, and yesterday’s VWAP at 3,874. If prices exceed these points, traders will look towards 3,911.5, 3,974, and 4,024. On the downside, bearish activity occurs only if prices drop below 3,757.5. Partial profit targets on this side include yesterday’s VWAP at 3,847, the July 22 POC at 3,745, and the July 25 VAH at 3,735. A further decline could reach 3,703, 3,680.5, and 3,656. Currently, ETH futures are priced at 3,808, supporting the bullish stance since it’s above the critical level. However, if the price goes below 3,757.5, it would indicate a shift to a bearish view, opening up opportunities for short positions. tradeCompass provides clear insights using volume profile and VWAP methods. Volume Profile helps us understand trading activities, while VWAP assesses market sentiment. Their approach suggests taking profits gradually and moving stop-losses to the entry point after reaching the second target. This helps manage risk and avoids invalidating the strategy by keeping stop-losses too far from the market movement. Given the current market context, we see this bullish trend as a good starting point for the upcoming weeks. It’s important to stay above the 3,795.5 mark, as this is essential for maintaining a positive outlook. A significant drop below 3,757.5 would prompt a reevaluation of this bullish perspective. The overall market environment supports this view, especially with excitement surrounding the launch of spot Ether ETFs. Reports from late May 2024 noted a record inflow of $2 billion into crypto products, with much attention turning to Ethereum. We should interpret the current price movements as early positioning by larger investors before these funds go active. Derivatives data backs this optimistic outlook. Positive funding rates for ETH perpetual futures show that long-position holders are willing to pay a premium. Options market data from Deribit reveals a strong interest in call options with strike prices of $4,000 and $5,000 for the end of the quarter. This indicates that traders are not just cautiously optimistic; they’re betting on significant gains. For a strategy over several weeks, we should extend our analysis to a longer timeframe, looking at the volume profile from the previous month. A solid support level has formed between $3,400 and $3,600, acting as a macro Value Area Low. As long as prices stay above this range, we should consider dips as buying opportunities rather than signs of a trend reversal. Historically, we can reference the Bitcoin ETF launch in January 2024 for guidance. Initially, there was a “sell the news” reaction, with BTC dropping close to 20% before institutional inflows caused a rally to new highs over the following two months. We should prepare for similar short-term fluctuations in ETH once trading officially starts, using these dips to establish longer-term positions. Therefore, our strategy should be to use the identified bullish threshold to start or increase long derivative positions, aiming for higher liquidity areas around 3,974 and 4,024 for initial profit-taking. Moving stop-losses to entry after hitting the second target is crucial for these longer-term trades. This way, we can benefit from the expected upward movement while also safeguarding our capital against sudden pullbacks caused by news events.

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