A private survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed an unexpected increase in crude oil stocks, against predictions of a 1.3 million barrel decrease. Expectations also included a 0.3 million barrel rise in distillates and a 0.6 million barrel drop in gasoline supplies. This API survey collects data from oil storage sites and companies, which is different from the official government figures. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its official report on Wednesday morning.

EIA Report Details

Both the API and EIA reports provide insights into crude oil storage levels and changes from the previous week, but the EIA report is more detailed. It uses information from the Department of Energy and other government sources. Additionally, the EIA report focuses on refinery operations and presents data for various crude oil grades like light, medium, and heavy. Many view the EIA’s report as more accurate and complete compared to the API’s. Although both reports offer important data, they serve different functions in illustrating the state of the oil market. The private survey data from July 29, 2025, suggests that we may see a short-term decline in oil prices. The unanticipated increase in crude inventories, despite market expectations for a decrease, points to either lower refinery demand or higher supply. We will closely monitor the front-month WTI and Brent contracts for any bearish reactions overnight. This report adds uncertainty ahead of the official government figures. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude recently priced over $82 per barrel, this API data could slow down the recent price rise. The official EIA reports have shown inventory reductions for three consecutive weeks, so a confirmed increase tomorrow would indicate a notable shift in market dynamics.

Considerations and Forecasts

We need to focus on demand as well, especially for gasoline during the peak driving season. U.S. gasoline usage has remained stable at around 9.1 million barrels per day but hasn’t reached the strong levels seen in summers before the pandemic. If the EIA report confirms the API’s suggestion of decreasing demand, gasoline futures prices could drop, pulling crude oil prices down with them. Looking ahead, we anticipate increased volatility in the weeks to come. We’re entering the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, and recent NOAA forecasts expect more named storms than usual. A major storm in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt production and cause prices to rise sharply, quickly reversing any bearish inventory trends. For derivatives, it’s wise to remain cautious about making directional bets until the EIA confirms a trend. We see an opportunity to hedge against downside risk, possibly by buying put options on crude oil futures that expire in the next few weeks. Given the mixed signals, strategies that benefit from a spike in volatility, like a long straddle, might also be worth considering ahead of tomorrow’s official report. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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