In July, US continuing jobless claims reached 1.946 million, just below the expected 1.96 million. This number gives insight into the job market and can impact market trends. The EUR/USD currency pair moved towards 1.1450 as the US dollar lost some of its strength. Positive job data from the US played a role in this shift.

GBP/USD Gains and Losses

The GBP/USD pair has been experiencing ups and downs, recently climbing back above 1.3200 after a short drop. This back-and-forth movement was driven by recent US economic data that affected the US dollar’s value. Gold prices faced some selling pressure while trying to rise above $3,300 per troy ounce. Falling US yields and slight losses in the dollar influenced gold’s performance. Bitcoin has been hovering between $116,000 and $120,000 for over two weeks. Increased buying from major investors and clearer regulations are affecting its current market sentiment. US continuing jobless claims are just under the 2 million mark, slightly higher than the 1.7 to 1.8 million range that was common in 2024. This ongoing rise suggests a slowing job market, which may affect the Federal Reserve’s future decisions. We should keep an eye on Fed Funds futures for signs of traders expecting a rate pause in September.

EUR/USD Market Movement

The EUR/USD is heading towards 1.1450, a notable increase from the 1.08 level seen last year. This rise shows weakness in the dollar, particularly as recent data reveals that Eurozone core inflation remains steady at 3.5%. This situation keeps the European Central Bank on a more aggressive monetary policy path. It may be wise to buy call options on the EUR/USD, aiming for a rise above the 1.1500 resistance level. Similarly, the GBP/USD is trading above 1.3200, benefiting from the dollar’s decline. Reports from the Bank of England indicate that UK inflation remains persistent, making interest rate cuts unlikely before 2026. This difference in policy from the US supports strategies like bull call spreads for potential gains. Gold is facing sellers near the $3,300 level, a significant increase from the $2,350 range of mid-2024. Its strength is linked to US 10-year Treasury yields, which have recently fallen below 3.8%. This makes non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. We see an opportunity to sell out-of-the-money put options on gold, collecting premium while betting prices will stay supported above $3,250. Bitcoin’s tight range between $116,000 and $120,000 has led to low volatility. On-chain data shows that wallets holding over 100 BTC have been steadily increasing since the “SEC Digital Asset Framework” was introduced earlier this year. This calm accumulation phase often leads to a significant price movement, making a long straddle an interesting strategy for profiting from an upcoming breakout in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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