The USDCHF pair increased last week before the U.S. jobs report, hitting highs around the 50% retracement of the May drop, reaching 0.817031. After weak job data was released, the pair fell below the 100-hour moving average and found support between 0.8017 and 0.8023. At the start of the new week, the pair tested the rising 200-hour moving average, which led to a rebound up to the 100-hour moving average at 0.8093. However, sellers stepped in, pushing the price back into a range between the moving averages and the secondary swing zone of 0.8054 to 0.8062.

Focus on Moving Averages

Traders who are paying attention to the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages have found this strategy helpful lately. The market has been stuck near these moving averages, signaling possible consolidation as buyers and sellers compete for control after Friday’s drop. The market may be “buying time” before the next big move. Sellers could target the 100-hour moving average for opportunities to sell. Meanwhile, buyers might consider entering near the 200-hour moving average, hoping for a break above the 100-hour for confirmation. These technical levels are vital indicators of market sentiment and impact short-term trading decisions. As of today, August 4, 2025, the USDCHF pair is in a tight contest. The market is consolidating between the 100-hour moving average, which acts as resistance around 0.8093, and the 200-hour moving average, which offers support near 0.8020. This back-and-forth suggests traders are taking a moment to decide their next move.

Impact of Economic Reports

This uncertainty is directly linked to last Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which revealed that only 150,000 jobs were added in July, falling short of the 210,000 expected. This data increased the unemployment rate to 4.1%, weakened the dollar, and caused a drop in the pair. Now, the market is considering whether this indicates a broader economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is in an easing phase, having lowered its policy rate in June 2025 because domestic inflation fell to just 1.2%. This weakness in the Swiss franc is keeping the pair from dropping further. The conflicting pressures of a slowing U.S. economy and a dovish SNB are causing the current standoff. For derivative traders, this compression between the moving averages suggests lower volatility might be on the horizon before a larger breakout. Some traders are positioning themselves for this by employing strategies like short-term strangles, where they buy both call and put options. This allows them to benefit from significant price movements in either direction in the coming weeks. The next important event to watch is the upcoming U.S. inflation data for July. If the CPI reading is higher than expected, it could challenge the weak jobs report, potentially pushing the pair above the 100-hour MA. Conversely, a soft inflation figure would heighten concerns about the U.S. economy and might lead the price to break below the 200-hour MA support. Reflecting back from 2025, this consolidation period is a significant shift from the high-volatility environment seen in 2022 and 2023. During that time, aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes and changes in SNB policy caused larger, clearer trends in this pair. Current market activity shows that central bank policies are now more balanced, leaving traders to monitor incoming data for guidance. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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