In June 2025, US factory orders fell by 4.8%, which was in line with expectations. The manufacturing data for the previous month was updated to show an 8.3% increase, revised from 8.2%. When we exclude transportation, factory orders rose slightly by 0.4%, compared to the prior month’s adjusted figure of 0.3%. Orders for durable goods were revised to show a 9.4% decline, remaining the same at -9.4% when defense is excluded. Orders for durable goods without transportation increased by 0.2% after rising 0.6% the month before. Non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, saw a decrease of 0.8%, compared to the preliminary figure of -0.7%, following a 2.0% increase in the previous month. According to the Census Department, new orders decreased by 4.8% to $611.7 billion in June, after an 8.3% rise in May. Shipments rose by 0.5% to $602.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased by 1.0% to $1,469.9 billion, rising in 11 of the last 12 months. The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments went up to 7.03 from 6.98. Inventories climbed by 0.2% to $945.6 billion, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio stayed steady at 1.57. Over the last three months, there were declines of 3.9% and 4.8%, resulting in a total drop of 8.7%, offsetting previous gains.

Factory Orders Data

The June factory orders data, now a few weeks old, confirms the shaky economic conditions we’ve been experiencing. The main drop of -4.8% was largely due to the transportation sector, masking a minor gain in other areas. This indicates that the underlying weakness is not as widespread as the main figure suggests. This mixed scenario continued with the July jobs report released last Friday. Payrolls increased by 165,000, falling just short of expectations. Slower hiring along with ongoing wage growth puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot ahead of its September meeting, creating more uncertainty for the market in the coming weeks. Market volatility remains high, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) staying around 18 for the last month. This environment punishes traders who bet on a clear, strong direction. Instead, it favors strategies that can profit from price swings in both directions.

Trading Strategies in Volatile Markets

In the coming weeks, we suggest that traders consider strategies that take advantage of this volatility, such as selling options through iron condors or strangles on major indices. These strategies can generate income as long as the market remains within a specific range. This allows traders to profit from the expected sideways movement. Looking back, this situation resembles the tariff-driven markets of 2018 and 2019. During that time, indices experienced sharp rallies and sell-offs based on trade news but ultimately made little progress for months. We may be entering another phase of volatile, sideways movement. A key point from the June report was the increase in unfilled orders, which rose again to a high ratio compared to shipments. This indicates that while new orders are inconsistent, factories have enough work to keep them occupied for now. It suggests a slowdown rather than a drastic collapse in industrial activity. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now