The USDCHF recently tried to break above a resistance level but struggled. The pair moved above the 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement from May 2025, reaching a high of 0.8117. However, it couldn’t maintain that level, leading sellers to challenge the 0.8102 resistance again. Attention may now turn to possible downward targets. Buyers are watching the swing zone between 0.8062 and 0.8054, supported by the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.8049. If the price drops below this, it could fall toward the range of 0.8017 to 0.8023 and possibly even lower, to 0.7985 to 0.7994. Staying above the 200-hour moving average could indicate a period of consolidation, but the recent rejection suggests weak momentum.

Market Influences And Resistance Levels

Important resistance levels are at 0.8102 and 0.8173. Support is found between 0.8054–0.8062 and 0.8017–0.8023. With the price below 0.8102, sellers seem to be in control, but breaking above it could shift market sentiment. Trade concerns are also affecting the market, as Switzerland is facing a 39% tariff and has a significant trade surplus with the US. Potential US tariff hikes on chips and pharmaceuticals are adding to the uncertainty. The recent attempt by USD/CHF to rise has faltered badly. The inability to maintain the 0.8102 resistance level indicates that sellers are regaining control. This breakdown signals a bearish trend, so we should be careful with long positions for now. With the price now trading below 0.8102, the easiest path seems to be downward. We are closely monitoring the support zone between 0.8062 and 0.8054. Traders may consider buying put options with strike prices near 0.8050 to take advantage of a possible breakdown of this level in the upcoming weeks.

Economic Indicators And Potential Impacts

We are seeing mixed signals from the US economy. The July jobs report, released last week, reported a stronger-than-expected gain of 250,000 jobs, which supports the US dollar. This underlying strength might prevent a steep drop in the pair and could lead to some volatile trading. In Switzerland, recent data showed inflation for July at 1.8%, slightly below predictions. This gives the Swiss National Bank (SNB) room to avoid raising interest rates, especially since they are concerned about the franc getting too strong. The SNB has historically intervened when the franc appreciates, which could limit its gains. The looming threat of a 39% US tariff on Swiss goods is the primary source of uncertainty, impacting key sectors like pharmaceuticals and watchmaking. We’ve seen similar erratic movements in safe-haven currencies during past US-China trade disputes in 2018 and 2019. This history suggests that both USD and CHF may experience unpredictable demand for safety, making directional bets risky. This uncertainty is reflected in the options market, where one-month implied volatility for USD/CHF has risen to 9.5%, up from an average of 6% in the second quarter. Traders anticipate larger price fluctuations ahead. For those already in positions, purchasing protective puts could be a smart way to guard against sudden news related to tariffs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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