**Russia Is Reportedly Considering a Truce Offer** Russia is reportedly looking at a truce offer with Ukraine. President Trump is urging countries that buy Russian oil to increase pressure on Russia’s economy. On CNBC, Trump stated that lower oil prices could help achieve peace, as Russia might find it hard to cope with ongoing economic stress. He also suggested raising tariffs on Indian imports due to their oil purchases from Russia. In Israel, Channel 12 reports that Netanyahu aims to fully occupy Gaza. This plan will be presented to the Council of Ministers for approval and could lead to more violence and humanitarian issues. Currently, crude oil prices are near their lowest point of the day, at $65.17, which is down $1.10. The price is hovering between $64.71 and $65.27. We are seeing mixed signals that could lead to high volatility in the coming weeks. The idea of a Russia-Ukraine truce is pushing prices down, while rising tensions in the Middle East could lead to price increases. This uncertainty creates trading opportunities. **Potential for High Volatility** The truce talks should be viewed skeptically. A similar offer was made in March 2025, which went nowhere, and the market quickly moved on. Therefore, heavily betting against oil based on these headlines could be risky. India’s situation is a more serious long-term concern for oil markets. The country imports over 1.8 million barrels of Russian oil daily, so U.S. tariffs could disrupt this major oil flow. Past trade conflicts from the late 2010s taught us that such situations lead to unpredictable price changes. In Israel, a full Gaza occupation would likely escalate the regional conflict, threatening crucial shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged over 15% during the last significant regional crisis in 2024. Right now, crude oil is at an important support level around $65. This level has held firm since June 2025, but recent U.S. government data showed an unexpected rise in crude inventories, contributing to current price weakness. If prices drop below this level, it could lead to more automated selling. Given these opposing factors, traders should explore strategies that can profit from significant price moves in either direction. Purchasing a strangle, which means buying both an out-of-the-money call and put option, could be effective. This strategy benefits if oil prices spike due to Middle East news or plummet from a surprising peace deal. For those with a directional view, the risk appears more favorable for rising prices because of the Gaza situation’s seriousness. Buying long-term call options for October or November 2025 allows traders to bet on increasing prices while minimizing potential losses if oil prices fall. This approach keeps traders in the game if the truce news turns out to be another false alarm. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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