New Zealand’s upcoming employment report is expected to show a rise in unemployment. Additionally, wage growth is likely to decrease compared to last year, which aligns with low and steady inflation levels. These trends may influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to cut interest rates on August 20. On August 6, 2025, the Asian economic calendar will feature important data, all in GMT.

Economic Calendar Overview

The calendar includes previous results on the far right and consensus median expectations in the next column when available. This gives a quick view of expected economic changes in the area. Tomorrow’s employment data from New Zealand is the main focus. The consensus indicates we should expect higher unemployment and slower wage growth, which supports the Reserve Bank’s case for cutting interest rates. An official rate reduction might occur as early as the next meeting on August 20. A rate cut would likely decrease the value of the New Zealand dollar since lower rates make it less attractive to investors seeking yield. This anticipation has been building over recent weeks, with derivative markets starting to reflect a higher chance of a rate cut.

Positioning for a Weaker Kiwi

Given this outlook, we see an opportunity to prepare for a weaker Kiwi dollar in the next few weeks. Buying put options on the NZD/USD is a clear-risk way to benefit from a potential decline. This strategy could be advantageous before the RBNZ meeting on August 20. Recent data support this view, showing a slowdown. The latest inflation report from July 2025 shows the headline CPI dropped to 2.8%, finally falling within the RBNZ’s target range of 1-3% after being above it for a long time. Business confidence surveys from last month also showed their lowest levels in over a year. We should recall the aggressive rate hikes the RBNZ initiated in 2022 and 2023 to control inflation. The current data suggests these hikes have worked, cooling the economy enough to consider a policy change. Tomorrow’s employment report is a crucial part of this picture. For those involved in trading interest rate derivatives, preparing for the RBNZ rate cut is an important strategy. Futures contracts linked to the Official Cash Rate already reflect expectations of easing. If tomorrow’s data surprises, such as a larger-than-expected increase in unemployment, it would likely speed up this trend. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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