The American Petroleum Institute (API) recently did a private survey. They expect a drop in crude oil stocks by 0.6 million barrels, an increase in distillates by 0.8 million barrels, and a decrease in gasoline stocks by 0.4 million barrels. This information helps oil storage facilities and companies get ready for the official government data release. The official report comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is set to be released on Wednesday morning, U.S. time. The EIA report offers a more in-depth analysis. While the API report shows total crude oil storage levels and weekly changes, the EIA includes data from the Department of Energy and other agencies. It also covers inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as storage levels for different types of crude oil, giving a complete picture of the oil market’s condition.

Market Reactions

We see the API survey data arriving just before the official government numbers come out tomorrow. This often leads to a brief spike in market activity, but the official EIA report is the one that counts the most. If there’s a big difference between the two reports, it could lead to a sharp price change on Wednesday morning. Given the chance for mismatched reports, traders might explore options strategies to benefit from the anticipated price swing. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has recently risen to around 35, indicating the market is preparing for surprises in tomorrow’s EIA data. This suggests that hedging against sudden movements, rather than picking a direction, could be a savvy short-term strategy. Looking ahead, we’re nearing the end of the summer driving season. In July 2025, U.S. gasoline demand averaged a modest 9.1 million barrels per day, slightly below expectations and lower than the 9.3 million bpd in July 2024. This trend could put pressure on crude prices as we head into autumn.

Supply Concerns

One major factor affecting supply in the coming weeks is the Atlantic hurricane season, which is currently at its peak. Any storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt a significant portion of the nearly 1.9 million barrels of daily offshore production. This risk of supply disruption is a key reason prices have stabilized despite mixed demand signals. Globally, we are closely monitoring OPEC+ policy after their June 2025 decision to keep output levels steady. This places greater importance on U.S. inventory reports as a primary indicator of global demand health. Any signs of reduced consumption in the official figures could boost confidence for bearish traders in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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