The Dow Futures cycle, which began its low in April 2025, is coming to an end. We may see a final surge to finish this impulsive cycle. The one-hour chart shows wave (3) reaching a peak of 45,312. It was followed by wave (4), which pulled back to 43,467 in a zigzag shape. Currently, wave (5) is forming as a smaller impulse. It starts from wave (4), where wave ((i)) hit 43,864 and wave ((ii)) pulled back to 43,542. We expect more highs until wave 1 of (5) ends, followed by a possible wave 2 pullback. Staying above 43,467 should encourage buyers and support further gains.

Eur Usd And Gbp Usd Analysis

The EUR/USD is hovering close to 1.1550 amid US ISM data. The ISM Services PMI fell slightly in July. The GBP/USD is moving below 1.3300 due to talks of potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and upcoming policy updates from the BoE. Gold is holding steady around $3,370 per ounce, facing pressure from gains in the US dollar and rising US yields. DeFi is gaining popularity as investors shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, which increases total locked value and user engagement. The Euro area shows strength thanks to a US-EU agreement, but concerns about a rate cut persist. We see the potential for one last rise in Dow Futures to wrap up the cycle that started in April 2025. Traders might look to buy on pullbacks, using call options or long futures positions as long as the index stays above the crucial support level of 43,467. This outlook is supported by last week’s strong US jobs report for July 2025, which indicated a gain of 250,000 non-farm payroll jobs, easing fears of a deep economic slowdown. For EUR/USD, we are closely watching the 1.1550 level as a key pivot. The recent drop in the US ISM Services PMI to 53.5 in July 2025, down from 54.1 in June, suggests a slight slowdown in the US economy. This could create short-term long opportunities for the pair, especially if upcoming inflation data confirms this trend.

Market Expectations And Strategies

We anticipate continued fluctuations in GBP/USD below the 1.3300 level. The market is currently pricing a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025 after shifting away from its earlier hawkish stance. Traders should prepare for increased volatility around the next Bank of England announcement and consider straddles or strangles to profit from significant price moves in either direction. Gold seems limited around $3,370, challenged by a strong US dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed to 4.75% last week, is a significant obstacle for non-yielding gold. We recommend waiting for a clear breakout above this level or a drop in yields below 4.5% before taking major long positions in gold derivatives. There’s a noticeable change in risk appetite in the digital asset market, with money moving away from Bitcoin. Data from July 2025 reveals that Ethereum-based futures volumes rose by 30%, while Bitcoin’s dominance index slipped by 4% to its lowest this year. Traders should focus on potential opportunities in Ethereum and promising DeFi tokens, which are likely to perform well soon. The Euro area shows some strength, but we remain wary due to the ongoing risk of a European Central Bank rate cut. The trade agreement on essential minerals finalized in June 2025 has boosted industrial sentiment, especially in Germany. Therefore, we advise hedging any long European equity positions until the ECB provides clearer guidance in their next meeting. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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