Gold prices are on the rise after a recent boost from disappointing Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. This trend is linked to a softer outlook on interest rates. Upcoming US Jobless Claims and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are expected to influence the market further. Jobless claims may reduce worries about the job market, while a higher CPI could create more uncertainty. Overall, gold is likely to keep climbing as real yields are expected to fall due to possible easing from the Federal Reserve.

Gold’s Technical Overview

In the daily chart, gold is moving up towards the important resistance level at 3,438. Sellers may jump in at this point, trying to push the price down to the 3,245 support level, while buyers hope for a breakout to higher prices. The 4-hour chart shows the price is stable between 3,349 and 3,385, with both buyers and sellers trying to steer the direction of the market. The 1-hour chart hints that buyers could push past 3,385, while sellers might aim to drop below 3,349. As we wait, tomorrow’s US Jobless Claims will likely set the next direction for the market. As of August 6, 2025, gold is showing positive movement after last Friday’s weaker jobs report. The metal is gaining slowly, mostly due to momentum, as everyone waits for significant economic updates. We think this trend could continue for another couple of days. All attention is on tomorrow’s Jobless Claims and next week’s inflation report. For the August 7th jobless claims, analysts expect a small drop to about 220,000, indicating that the job market isn’t weakening too rapidly. This could limit gold’s upward movement for now.

Impact of Economic Indicators on Gold

Next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be crucial. Recent data from July 2025 shows core inflation stubbornly staying above 3.5%. If the CPI is high again, it might scare the market and lead to a quick drop in gold prices. On the other hand, a lower number may push gold prices higher. Looking at the big picture, we believe the outlook for gold is strong. The market currently sees a greater than 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at the September meeting, which supports assets like gold that don’t yield returns. We expect real yields to keep falling from their highs earlier this year, which should help gold rise over time. This situation has been seen before during the Fed’s easing cycle in 2019 when decreasing real yields led to a significant gold price rally. Short-term dips may happen, but the overall environment favors rising prices. These dips can present good buying opportunities. For traders dealing in derivatives, the current range between 3,349 and 3,385 is key. A strong break above 3,385 could suggest buying call options, anticipating a move towards the main resistance around 3,438, where traders can lock in some profits. In contrast, if the price falls below the 3,349 support level, it might drop to 3,245. In this case, traders could consider buying put options to benefit from the decline. This approach provides a clear way to manage risk in a potential short-term downturn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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