The Swiss government is set to continue talks with the United States after a recent meeting did not go as planned. The focus will be on finding ways to help Swiss businesses suffering from US tariffs. Currently, 60% of Swiss exports to the US are facing extra tariffs, but Switzerland is not looking to impose retaliatory tariffs. Swiss President Keller-Suter pointed out that introducing tariffs is a tough challenge. The purpose of the visit to Washington was to present a new proposal, which was achieved even though the US will keep tariffs for now. The resilience of Swiss industry is highlighted, withstanding previous challenges such as the pandemic.

Currency Markets Analysis

In the currency markets, the USD/CHF pair has risen above its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. This is a positive sign for short-term buyers, but as momentum wanes, the exchange rate is testing these averages again. If it stays above these moving averages, buyer control may continue; if not, selling pressure could increase. The pair’s support level is just above the 50% retracement from the July to August rally at 0.80405. If it falls below the moving averages, traders may aim for this support level. The unsuccessful trade meeting has created uncertainty for Swiss assets, but the Federal Council has confirmed that discussions with the US will carry on. The main point is that Switzerland is not planning retaliatory tariffs right now. This strategy avoids escalating tensions but still leaves Swiss exporters vulnerable to ongoing economic challenges. With nearly 60% of Swiss exports to the US now facing additional tariffs, there is growing downward pressure on the Swiss Franc. The government’s choice to discuss “relief measures” instead of counteractions shows an understanding of immediate economic difficulties. This supports a weaker outlook for the CHF against the dollar in the coming weeks. Recent data backs this view. The Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) survey from late July 2025 shows a sharp drop in business confidence. Additionally, early export data for July showed a 4.2% month-over-month decrease in shipments to the US, particularly affecting the machinery and watchmaking sectors. This evidence indicates a real economic impact is taking shape.

Swiss Industry Resilience

Swiss industry has faced challenges before, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2015 removal of the minimum exchange rate against the Euro. That incident caused significant volatility and highlighted how sensitive the Franc can be to major policy changes. While today’s situation is different, that history suggests traders should prepare for potential sharp currency movements. In the upcoming weeks, traders dealing in derivatives should consider strategies that benefit from a falling Swiss Franc. Buying call options on USD/CHF can provide upside exposure with clearly defined risks. This approach seems favorable given the recent technical breakout above key moving averages, indicating potential for further gains. The ongoing diplomatic uncertainty means volatility is a factor to trade on. Implied volatility on USD/CHF options has risen by 7% since yesterday’s unsuccessful meeting. Traders who expect a significant price swing but aren’t sure which direction to take might consider buying straddles to profit from a large move either way. Technically, the market is in a critical position as USD/CHF tests the 100 and 200-hour moving averages again. Successfully holding above this range would support bullish positions and likely encourage additional buying. Conversely, failing to hold would shift attention to the next major support level near 0.80405. If the pair falls below these moving averages, it would signal a failed breakout and could lead to renewed selling. Traders with bullish derivatives should have risk management strategies, such as protective puts or stop-loss orders below this technical area. The market’s reaction at these moving averages in the next couple of days will be crucial. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now