Argentina’s industrial output rose from 5.8% in May to 9.3% in June compared to the same month last year. This increase shows that the industrial sector is performing better. In financial markets, EUR/USD traded around 1.1650 as traders awaited US inflation data. Meanwhile, GBP/USD climbed close to 1.3450, with the British Pound gaining strength due to recent decisions by the Bank of England. Gold prices remained steady near $3,400 per troy ounce, though they fluctuated slightly after reaching higher levels earlier. This steadiness comes amid new US tax measures on certain sizes of gold bars. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin held a positive trend, nearing a resistance level of $118,000 before pulling back to $116,525. The mood among digital currencies is upbeat, fueled by new interest from both large investors and individual traders. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%. Concerns about ongoing inflation rates are influencing future decisions. This suggests that officials may be cautious about further rate cuts soon. With recent market changes, we need to adjust our derivative strategies for the upcoming weeks. The anticipated US inflation update has been released, showing a July Consumer Price Index of 3.8%, slightly higher than the 3.7% forecast. This small surprise boosts the dollar, prompting us to consider buying put options on EUR/USD, as we expect it to fall below the 1.1600 support level. The Bank of England’s rate cut to 4% has come alongside weak economic data, with UK retail sales for July unexpectedly down by 0.5%. This increases the chances of further rate cuts to stimulate the economy, which could weaken the pound. We see this as a chance to start short positions on GBP/USD futures, aiming for a target of 1.3300. Gold’s stability near $3,400 an ounce is being challenged by rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year note climbing back to 4.75% this week. This price is quite different from the $2,300 range seen throughout much of 2024, indicating a bullish market. As higher yields make gold less appealing, we are considering selling call options to take advantage of a possible price ceiling. Bitcoin’s struggle to break the $118,000 resistance level is noteworthy, and recent data shows a slowdown in large wallet inflows over the past week. The optimism stemming from the post-2024 halving environment seems to be pausing. This suggests a consolidation period, making strategies like straddles or strangles appealing for trading expected volatility without choosing a direction. While the strong industrial figures from Argentina in June were promising for emerging markets, our key focus is on central bank policies. The differences between a cautious Bank of England and a data-driven US Federal Reserve are likely to create volatility. We must stay ready to adapt to changing expectations regarding inflation and growth.

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