There’s some confusion about the U.S. tariffs on imported 1-kg and 100-oz gold bars from Switzerland. Recently, imports of 1-kg Swiss gold bars were reclassified, leading to a 39% tariff. This is a change from their previous status, which didn’t have any tariffs. An official stated that a new policy is coming soon to clear up the misunderstandings about gold bar tariffs. Meanwhile, Swiss refiners have stopped shipping 1-kg gold bars to the U.S., which could lead to market instability.

Gold Prices And Resistance Levels

Gold prices fell after a report from a White House official, but there’s still some slight upward momentum on the daily chart. The resistance levels are at 3450 and 3500, while support levels stand at 3350 (21, 50 DMAs) and 3290. The gold market is facing significant uncertainty due to the tariff confusion surrounding Swiss kilobars. With Swiss refiners halting these important shipments, there could be a supply shortage for COMEX-deliverable bars in the coming weeks. This situation is creating a tense wait for the promised clarification from officials. The stop in shipments is significant. In 2024, U.S. trade data showed that Switzerland was a major source of gold, totaling over $35 billion. A large portion of these were the very 1-kilogram bars currently affected, highlighting their importance for market liquidity.

Impact On Derivative Traders

This uncertainty affects derivative traders directly by creating expected price volatility. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), which was near 14 last week, is likely to rise into the high teens as traders adjust for the possibility of sharp price movements. This is a typical scenario for strategies that benefit from large price swings, regardless of which direction they go. We think that setting up long straddles or strangles could be a smart move. By purchasing both call and put options, traders can prepare for a breakout once the tariff policy is clear. If the resolution is favorable, gold prices could soar toward the 3500 resistance. Conversely, if the tariffs are upheld, gold prices could drop to test the support level at 3290. This situation brings back memories of the market instability seen during the tariff disputes of the late 2010s. Back then, markets often reacted more to the uncertainty around trade announcements than to the actual economic effects of the tariffs. The current pause from Swiss refiners reflects a similar supply-chain reaction to policy confusion. The key technical levels to watch are now more critical than ever. The support area around 3350, which includes important moving averages, is the immediate floor supporting the market’s bullish tone. A strong break below this level could indicate that the market is preparing for bad news. Thus, we are getting ready for two possible outcomes in the coming weeks. If the tariff is lifted, we expect a quick move to test the 3450 resistance. If the 39% tariff is confirmed, we anticipate an immediate test of support levels, starting at 3350. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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