US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has talked about a special deal between Trump and Nvidia. This agreement lets Nvidia sell specific AI chips to China, with 15% of the revenue going to the US government. Bessent believes there could be more deals like this in the future. He highlights the importance of conversations with China regarding these chips since Chinese technology often relies on US innovations. He also mentions that the revenue from semiconductors could help lower US debt.

Unique Government Solution

This situation creates a unique government approach to chip sales to China, impacting the environment for traders. Unlike the total bans that were tightening in 2023 and 2024, the new 15% revenue share changes how companies like Nvidia can profit. This policy brings both huge opportunities and significant risks for the semiconductor industry in the coming weeks. Following these comments, implied volatility for Nvidia (NVDA) options has skyrocketed. NVDA’s 30-day implied volatility has jumped above 55%, a notable rise from the low 40s seen in July 2025. Traders should expect significant price fluctuations as the market evaluates whether this access-for-a-fee model is better than a total ban. On the positive side, this deal could open a large market, potentially boosting sales far beyond current forecasts. China’s spending on AI infrastructure grew by 22% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand for these chips, which may offset the added costs. Traders who are optimistic about this should consider call options on NVDA and AMD, betting that the market is overreacting to the 15% fee while underestimating sales volume. Conversely, the 15% tax on revenue could hurt profit margins and lead to negative earnings revisions from Wall Street analysts. We are also monitoring any official reactions from Beijing, as such non-tariff barriers could trigger backlash against other US companies. This risk makes it wise to consider put options as a safety measure or a speculative bet on a negative market response.

Policy Impact on Tech Sector

Over time, this policy might extend to other technology sectors. As a result, keep a close eye on the volatility of the broader tech-focused QQQ ETF. The Nasdaq 100 has already seen more fluctuations, with daily movements over 1.5% since this policy was proposed last month. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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