The EIA will share its weekly oil inventory data at 10:30 AM today. Crude oil prices are holding steady as the market waits for inventory updates and assesses technical trends. Recent private data shows an increase in crude oil by 1.5 million barrels and distillates by 300,000 barrels. However, Cushing stocks have dropped by 600,000 barrels. Market estimates predict a decrease in crude oil by 275,000 barrels and an increase in distillates by 725,000 barrels. Last week’s change for Cushing was noted at 453,000 barrels.

Market Technical Analysis

Crude oil is currently priced at $63.03, down $0.14 from the last close of $63.17. The price has fallen below the 100-hour moving average of $64.78. This level, along with the trading range of $63.61 to $65.27, is crucial for understanding market direction. Staying below this range shows that sellers are in control in the short term, while breaking above it could change the trend. As we wait for today’s 10:30 AM EIA inventory update from August 13, 2025, crude oil remains steady around $63. This price is quite low for mid-August, especially compared to prices over $80 during the same time in 2023. This weakness highlights deeper market worries beyond just inventory figures. Concerns about weaker global demand weigh on the market. Notably, China’s manufacturing PMI for July 2025 fell to 49.8. Along with stable OPEC+ production, this has kept sellers active this summer. With the busy US driving season ending, prices are facing even more pressure.

Market Outlook and Strategy

Private reports released late yesterday revealed an unexpected crude build of 1.5 million barrels, supporting the bearish sentiment. Yet, the market still anticipates a slight draw of 275,000 barrels in today’s EIA report. Any difference here could lead to significant price fluctuations for traders. On the technical side, the price remains below the 100-hour moving average of $64.78. The critical range between $63.61 and $65.27 defines risk in the short term. As long as prices stay below this ceiling, sellers maintain an advantage. Strategies like buying put options or selling call spreads can be appealing. Looking ahead, traders should monitor for any confirmations of inventory builds from the EIA. If we see another official build, like the 2.1 million barrel surprise in July 2025, it would strengthen the bearish trend and could push prices closer to $60. The biggest risk to the upside is a major supply disruption, like a significant hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which could swiftly change market sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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