Recent Oil Inventory Data

Recent oil inventory data shows a big increase in crude oil stocks. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.036 million barrels, while a drop of 0.275 million barrels was expected. Crude oil prices have reached their lowest level since early June 2025. Sellers are clearly in control of the market, with prices sitting at $62.65. This is significantly below key technical levels like the 100-day average, indicating that further price declines are likely. Traders should view this as a strong sign of ongoing bearish momentum. The unexpected rise of over 3 million barrels in U.S. inventories is a major bearish factor, especially since the market had anticipated a decrease. This is unusual for mid-August, a time when summer driving typically reduces stockpiles. Last year in 2023 and 2024, we saw significant inventory draws during the same period. This shift suggests that demand might be weaker than previously thought.

Key Levels to Watch

On a global scale, concerns about slowing economic activity in China are impacting demand expectations. Recent data shows that China’s manufacturing sector is still struggling, which lowers forecasts for oil consumption. This broader economic weakness is contributing to the current price drop. In the coming weeks, buying put options with strike prices around the $60 level could be a smart strategy. This allows traders to benefit from further price declines while managing risk. Bear put spreads may also be a good option to reduce the initial cost. A crucial level to observe is $65.27, the recent swing high. If prices break above this level, it would suggest that buyers are gaining control, signaling a good time to exit bearish positions. Until then, any rallies toward the $64 mark should be seen as chances to sell. We should also keep an eye on the Atlantic hurricane season, which has been calm so far this year. Any major storm that threatens production in the Gulf of Mexico could lead to a quick price surge, posing a risk to short positions. Monitoring weather forecasts is vital for effective risk management. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now