USDCAD went up this week, moving within a tight range of 70–75 pips. The lowest point was on Monday, while the highest came on Thursday, near a previous peak from August 1. Today, there was a slight pullback that tested the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.37807. The price dipped to 1.3788 but quickly bounced back. From Monday to Thursday, the price hovered near the 100-day moving average, acting like a magnet instead of providing strong support or resistance.

Buyers Gain Slight Advantage

Yesterday, the price broke above the 100-day moving average, currently at 1.37707, which gives buyers a slight edge. As we look to next week, the trend is expected to stay positive as long as prices remain above the 100-day moving average. If the price exceeds the week’s high of 1.38193, it could aim for the previous high of 1.38788. On the other hand, falling below the 100-day moving average would allow sellers to take control again. USDCAD has been trending higher this past week, but the fight between buyers and sellers has kept the movement limited. The price staying above the 100-day moving average at 1.37707 favors buyers as we head into the next weeks. This suggests a strategy of buying on dips. This slight upward trend is also supported by recent economic data from August 2025. The latest US CPI figures show inflation at 3.4%, while Canada’s job report indicated a surprising rise in unemployment to 6.2%. This difference means the US Federal Reserve may stay stricter on its policies compared to the Bank of Canada.

Impact of Economic Indicators and Oil Prices

Additionally, WTI crude oil prices have dropped, recently falling below $75 a barrel, which negatively impacts the Canadian currency. We recall the differing policies of the central banks in 2024, which often drove consistent trends in this pair. The current situation feels similar, hinting at a possible trend. For those trading derivatives like call options or long futures, the initial target is the recent high near 1.3819. If that level is breached, it would set sights on the high from the first week of August 2025 at 1.38788. The analysis indicates there’s potential for upward movement if momentum builds. Conversely, the 100-day moving average is crucial for risk management. A clear drop below 1.37707 would signal that sellers are back in control. Such a move would advise considering protective put options or exiting long positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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