According to Greg Michalowski, the NZDUSD shows a slight bearish tendency as the week comes to a close.
by VT Markets
/
Aug 15, 2025
Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD is finishing the week with a slight bearish trend, trading below important technical levels. The price is below the 100-day moving average and under the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the four-hour chart. This indicates that the downward momentum may continue soon.
This technical weakness matches recent economic data from New Zealand. Last week, it was reported that New Zealand’s GDP growth for Q2 slowed to 0.3%. Additionally, the latest Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction on August 5th showed a 2.8% drop in average prices. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates steady, but their statement was more cautious than expected.
In contrast, the US dollar remains strong. The US added 205,000 jobs in July, according to the Non-Farm Payrolls report released on August 1st. Furthermore, recent comments from the Federal Reserve confirmed their intention to keep current interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year. This difference in policy is putting pressure on the NZDUSD pair, similar to trends seen throughout 2024.
Strategic Considerations
In this situation, derivative traders might think about buying put options on the NZDUSD. We suggest considering puts with expiration dates in September 2025 and strike prices below the current spot rate, as they may present a good risk-to-reward opportunity. This approach would profit from a further decline in the currency pair over the coming weeks.
We are focusing on key support levels from early 2025 as potential targets. A significant drop below the year’s low could speed up the downward movement. Traders should keep an eye on next week’s US retail sales data, as strong results could boost the dollar and create additional pressure on the NZDUSD.
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by VT Markets
Aug 15, 2025
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