China’s National Bureau of Statistics will publish PMI data on Sunday. This includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing numbers. The release will happen at 0130 GMT on Sunday, August 31, 2025, which is 2230 US Eastern time on Saturday, August 30, 2025. ### Manufacturing PMI Expectations For August, the manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in contraction for the fifth consecutive month, with a projected reading of 49.4, slightly higher than the previous month’s 49.3. Factory activity has been influenced by trade tensions between the US and China, severe summer weather, and China’s efforts to cut excess production capacity. ### Non-Manufacturing PMI Expectations The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be just above the expansion mark, with a projected figure of 50.3, up from 50.1. The earlier composite PMI recorded was 50.2. We are closely monitoring the PMI data from China set to be released this weekend, as it will impact market activity. The focus is on the weak manufacturing sector, which is expected to shrink for the fifth month, against the service sector that shows slight growth. This divide between struggling industry and resilient consumer activity creates a complex outlook for the coming weeks. The forecast of a manufacturing PMI at 49.4 suggests a continued low demand for industrial materials. There’s been noticeable pressure, with iron ore futures dropping nearly 4% over the past month, and stockpiles at major ports on the rise. This situation supports bearish strategies for industrial metals, such as buying puts on copper ETFs or shorting futures contracts. For currency traders, the Australian dollar is crucial to watch, as its value closely aligns with China’s industrial performance. Historical data from 2024 showed that the AUD/USD pair fell sharply whenever China’s manufacturing figures fell short. A disappointment this weekend could lead to a similar outcome, making short-dated options betting on a lower AUD an appealing strategy. ### Equity Markets and Potential Surprises In the equity markets, the Hang Seng index is facing increased tension, with implied volatility on options rising over 15% in the last two weeks before this data release. Since a weak manufacturing number is largely expected, the most significant price move could arise from a surprise in either direction. This makes volatility strategies, like a long straddle, potentially more effective than straightforward bets. We should also consider the chance of a positive surprise, which could challenge current market beliefs. If manufacturing unexpectedly rises above the 50-point mark, it may lead to a swift covering of short positions in commodities and China-related stocks. This risk suggests that holding aggressively bearish positions without some form of protection could be risky if the data exceeds expectations. **[Create your live VT Markets account](https://www.vtmarkets.com/trade-now/) and [start trading](https://myaccount.vtmarkets.com/login) now.**

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now