The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that the US oil rig count has risen to 412, surpassing the expected 408. Last week’s count was 411. The total rig count is now 536, down slightly from 538. Gas rigs have also dropped to 119 from 122.

Oil Rigs and Oil Prices

The count of oil rigs is closely related to oil prices. When oil prices rise, the number of oil rigs usually increases. When oil prices fall, the count tends to decrease. Although this data provides useful insights, it is not seen as a crucial market-changing factor because it lags behind current trends. The connection between oil prices and rig counts indicates that oil prices set the trend for rig activity. According to the latest Baker Hughes data, the US oil rig count has slightly increased to 412. This reflects a response to stronger crude prices seen earlier in the summer of 2025. However, this number mostly reflects producer sentiment from the past month rather than future market direction.

Market Signs and Strategic Opportunities

Currently, we see signs of weakness emerging as the summer driving season is coming to a close. WTI crude has already dropped from its peak of over $90 per barrel in July 2025 to around $85. Recent figures from the EIA’s August 2025 report indicated a downward revision for global demand in the fourth quarter, suggesting a possible oversupply. This creates a disconnect between the increasing rig count and the weakening demand outlook. Since production lags behind rig counts, we expect supply to keep rising even as demand typically wanes. This indicates that oil prices are likely to trend downwards in the coming weeks. For derivative traders, this could be an opportunity to consider bearish strategies. Buying puts on WTI futures or setting up bear put spreads could be smart moves to take advantage of potential price drops this fall. These strategies would benefit if the market anticipates seasonal and economic slowdowns. We’ve seen this pattern before, notably before the price collapse in mid-2014. At that time, the rig count kept increasing for several months even after oil prices peaked. This historical example serves as an important reminder that rig counts respond to prices, not the other way around. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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