NASDAQ futures show bearish signs during the holiday, with observed resistance and downside levels

    by VT Markets
    /
    Sep 1, 2025
    U.S. markets are closed for Labour Day, resulting in low trading activity and uncertain moves in NASDAQ futures. Despite this, the order flow provides valuable insights for those looking to trade short-term or prepare for tomorrow’s market open. NASDAQ futures have tested the resistance area between 23,488 and 23,500 and briefly went above the VWAP at 23,471. The 08:00 ET futures bar showed a bearish shift with a delta of -170 and a cumulative delta decreasing to -972, indicating a clear rejection at the Value Area High (VAH) and VWAP. Here are the key resistance and support levels to watch: – Resistance: 23,470 (VWAP), 23,485 (below VAH) – Downside targets: 23,403 (just above today’s Point of Control), 23,372 (near today’s Value Area Low), and 23,420, which aligns with Friday’s VA Low at 23,417. For managing risk and taking profits, the tradeCompass framework suggests locking in partial profits when the first target is reached. Secure larger profits at the second target while setting stops at the entry point. On low-volume days like today, it’s wise to scale out early. Today’s price movements indicate rejection at the resistance level. A bearish trend is supported by failed breakouts and a negative delta. However, confidence remains moderate due to thin holiday trading. As we approach the U.S. market open, the outlook looks more bearish than bullish. During this quiet Labor Day session, NASDAQ futures struggled to stay above key resistance around the 23,488 to 23,500 range, indicating sellers may be gaining control and creating a cautious tone for the week. This technical weakness coincides with the latest PCE data from late August, which showed a slight rise in inflation to 2.9%. This uptick has stirred concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next move, causing investors to hesitate about pushing prices higher. Additionally, major chip manufacturers are warning about a potential slowdown in AI hardware demand for the fourth quarter. Traders using options may want to consider buying near-term put options on the QQQ. If the 23,470 level isn’t recaptured on Tuesday, this could signal a drop towards the first target of 23,403. This strategy provides defined risk while positioning for a possible downturn. Futures traders should keep an eye on the 23,470 to 23,485 area as a prime zone for starting short positions. Given the current setup, it’s smart to take partial profits at 23,403 and adjust stops to the entry point. This disciplined approach helps manage risk if the market suddenly reverses when full trading volume returns. September can often be a challenging month, similar to the market fluctuations in September 2023 when the Fed signaled its “higher for longer” rate policy. Low holiday volumes can produce misleading signals. Tuesday’s market opening will really test whether this bearish pressure continues. Adding to our cautious perspective, recent weekly jobless claims were reported at 235,000, indicating a continued upward trend over the past two months. This gradual softening in the labor market gives bears more reason to worry that the economy may be losing momentum. The key will be seeing if this sentiment persists when major players return to the market.

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