Bitcoin futures were just below 111,000 on September 2, 2025, after a wild trading night. The price faced a tough resistance zone between 110,900 and 111,400, making it hard to break through. At first, buyers led the session, pushing Bitcoin into this resistance area. Both standard Bitcoin futures and micro Bitcoin futures showed high buyer interest. However, in the last 30 minutes, a wave of selling changed the trend, and the price couldn’t stay above the point of control (POC) at 110,920. This level, once a support point, is now acting as resistance. Buyers tried to move higher, but sellers pushed back, likely with larger players selling off. The micro Bitcoin futures, popular among retail traders, experienced strong buying but quickly reversed, showing unsuccessful breakout attempts. Currently, the order flow favors sellers unless buyers can reclaim lost ground. Key levels to watch are resistance at 111,390, the pivot at 110,920, and support at 110,430. If the price dips below 110,430, it might drop to 110,000. In a bearish scenario, staying under the POC and breaking the VWAP could lead to deeper tests around 110,000. A bullish turn needs a reclaiming of 110,920 and a surpassing of 111,390. Right now, the market leans bearish unless buyers recover the POC. There is clear rejection at the resistance band around $111,400, where strong buying was absorbed by sellers. This pattern, particularly with retail traders in micro futures being flushed out, suggests larger players are selling their holdings. The failure to sustain above the $110,920 pivot strengthens the bearish outlook for the upcoming weeks. This bearish view is also seen in the options market. The 25-delta skew for October contracts has turned negative, indicating that traders are now paying more for puts compared to calls, which shows a rising interest in downside protection. This marks a big shift from the bullish sentiment we noticed just a few weeks ago. Additionally, open interest on major exchanges like CME has stalled around $6.5 billion, failing to rise with price attempts. When prices increase but open interest does not, it often points to a lack of new money to support the trend. This divergence suggests the current rally may be losing momentum. We should consider the historical context, as September has typically been weak for crypto markets. Similar fluctuations were seen in September 2021 before a major correction. This seasonal trend adds caution for those anticipating an immediate breakout. For traders, this market calls for discipline and a defensive strategy in the weeks ahead. Starting new long positions now is risky until buyers can firmly reclaim the $110,920 pivot and demonstrate lasting strength. Instead, look for failures at resistance to build short positions, using the value area high at $111,390 as a stop-loss point. If the price breaks below the $110,430 VWAP, further selling toward the psychological $110,000 level is likely. The upcoming CPI inflation report later this month could trigger such a move. Only a strong break and hold above $111,400 would change this cautious outlook and require us to reconsider a bullish stance.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now